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how do you know?

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http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php?tid=27251&extra=page%3D2

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Some people said that we can hit the target horse as high as 75% if we can predict
correctly the pace of a race. I have some experience in this field. My own system can tell
quite accurately the pace of  a coming race. The concept is that we have to sort out the past
best performance of the same distance done by all participating horses and study the pace they  did in that race. Capture the data of the pace of all horses in that race by section and compare it with the standard sectional time ( which you have to do it on your own by using
the HKJC Club's standard time as a yardstick.) If there are more than 4 horses  having the sectional speed faster than the standard by a few lines and competing in the first section (in the front), the pace of the coming race could  be most probably fast. If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional time faster than the standard , the coming race could be
slow.  Likewise, if there is no horse found, the coming race could be normal.

Sorry, I make a correction.  If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional faster than
the standard, the coming race could be good-to-fast (normal).  If there is no horse having
the sectional time faster than the standard, the coming race could be slow.

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¨Ò A (¥H¤U¼Æ¦r¬°¤@³õ°¨¤§¦U¾sºD©Ê¨«¦ì)
1,3,4,4,5,6,6,7,8,10,10,11,11,12
³o³õ°¨·|§Q©ñÀY

¨Ò B
1,1,2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
³o³õ°¨·|§Q«á°l

¨Ò C
3,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
³o³õ§Q«á°l

¨Ò C
4,4,4,5,5,6,7,8,9,10....
³o³õ¤]¬O§Q«á°l(¦ý·|ºC¨B³t)

I can explain the situation why sometimes the golden rules cannot apply, ie. a springer
taking an advantage of a fast pace run and a stayer taking an advantage of a slow run.  The  reason is that sometimes, we have an anti-trend horse which is a springer and finally wins a fast run race. The good example is ¯SÄ_¼Ö which participated in the race 665 on 3/6/09. Though the run is fast and¯SÄ_¼Ö is a springer. In the race, all along she leads and wins the race. Though the last 400M speed is slow, 24.54 compared the best 400M speed 22.56 in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M, she still gives the finishing time 1.40.1 only 10 lines below the fastest finishing time in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M. So, the lesson is that ¯SÄ_¼Ö is a super horse because she shows an extraordinary strength that she can finish the race courageously in a poor situation. Though you may not be able to choose her in race 655 as a winner, you still learn a lesson that she is super and you should mark it down for future reference. One day, you will be awarded.  

Likewise, there is another kind of anti-trend horse which wins a race in a slow run race
whereas she is a stayer.  The good example is «i²r¯«¾s which participated in race 628
on 21/5/09. The race is a slow run. However she wins the race with her last best speed
22.85 which is only 0.29 slower the best 400M speed in Class 3, Happy Valley, 1650M.
Though it is a slow run, her finishing time 1.40.6 is not bad, 10 lines above the standard
time 1.40.7.  The lesson we learn here is that  «i²r¯«¾s  is also a super horse. You need
pay her your attention from time to time.

After all, horse racing is a fun.  It is full of unexpected results. On a average, our golden rule
is true ºC¨B³t§Q©ñ¡A§Ö¨B³t§Q°l because a horse is an animal which only has a full
speed for 400M.