about 大熱門

today I would like to talk about this topic. "大熱門"

as so many people always fear to take out the "favorite" "大熱門" when the time
we are betting.. especially betting in Q/PQ/T.

but as I said it before... the only way we win the money from horse racing. is beat the public.
coz only less amount of the people in horse racing can win the money from the loser.

but maybe some of u might say... hey... u always say dat the "odds" nowsadays is nearly mean
the succesful rate of win .. then why we dont buy the "favorite"

ya. ur right. but remember.. the only way to win is decide which race is the best one to bet.
when we find out a "favorite" have some reason might lose. then its a good chance to bet.

Some of u guys maybe still dont know why. As I am a person who like to use data to prove the
things right or not. maybe I give a example to let u guys have a look...

I think most of them here might know how to calculate the "odds".

for example why the odds is 2 for no 1, and 5 for no 2.

here is a example to let the people who dont know why...

let say the pool of win is $10000  (normaly should about 10M to 20M)

and only have 4 horses in one race.

         
no 1   have $1500 bet
no 2  have $5000 bet
no 3  have $3000 bet
no 4 have $500 bet

the formula to calculate the odds is like this.

1/(odds/0.825) * Pool = money have bet on this horsel

so the odds like this.

no 1 odds 5.5
no 2 odds 1.65
no 3 odds  4.04
no 4 odds 16.5

so the favorite is 1.65 dat mean only 50% of the people think dat the horse will win. in other hands.
dat mean 50% of the people think the horse cant win.

so if u find out dat no 2 maybe have some reason cant win. they why not just take it out and buy the other 3?

I just wanna point out dat its always no good dat we buy the favourite. unless u really think dat the horse really cant lose..

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 2-9-2006 01:53 AM 編輯 ]

The most favorite winning percentage is very constant. Winning chance is about 26-28% for years. Q is about 50% so far. P? I dont know... I dont consider much on that because I never bet P on the most favorite.

I dont fully agree with simply deleting the most favorite for Q, QP, or T. To use your example, the hedge results of the other 3 horses (no.3 odds should be 2.75), the ave payout is also 1.65 only. No difference to the most favoirte. Nonetheless, I think you just want to point out "no fear to take out the most favorite", right?

I also strongly believe that the only way to win is bet with the combinations whenever the Math. Expectation is positive. (chance x odds -1 >0).

Of coz, we never know the chance before the race. That's the "art" of horse racing :D

另外，說些個人經驗

我於92年"正式"賭馬。當時，長期飛走告東尼的大熱。那年大概投注60,000，獲利約10,000。

此後，基本上沿這方向投注，有贏有輸，總算不敗。

至02-04，不行了。及後驗討，4班賽輸得極慘。現時反注重4班熱門呢！

[ 本帖最後由 phantomhorse 於 2-9-2006 11:59 AM 編輯 ]

ya.. "no fear to take out the most favorite" when u think the favourite might lose.

啊…大熱Q rate 應不是50%，現出無法在HKJC查添

大熱統計                               
賽        冠        亞        季        負
712        188        119        91        314
上名率        55.90%                       
入Q率        43%                       
勝出率        26.40%

that is ... it is not about the odds .... it's about how well are your analysis to the race :em35:

I also agree that the favorite is not WORTH our money to bet, although we can use it 做馬膽.