科學方法可以在投注賽馬實踐嗎?

<前言>

首先要多謝coffee版主建設並維持此論壇。

此前我曾在其他論壇及新聞組嘗試尋找理念接近的同好不果,
但在今個馬季開始至今一直觀摩及參與此論壇,
發覺此論壇風氣始終能持平看待持不同意念的版友,達和而不同,

我自上季中(11月)重新再投入賽馬,經半季投注後,發現一點點可行的投注方法,
今季再進一步改進,似乎可以做出一點成績,
但我自己經常因未能自律而反有損失(投注足球是原因之一),

不過對於應否公開討論我的方法,卻又忐忑不安,
既憂方法公開後有反效果(game theory?),
又苦於未能得分享討論之樂,
所以實在很佩服coffee版主及其他版友能分享自己的成果,

回到正題
<科學方法可以在投注賽馬實踐嗎?>
所謂科學方法應包含以下過程
1.假設
2.驗證(找尋證據)
3.實踐(進行實驗)
4.理論
以coffee版主的操練理論來說,已經很接近科學方法,甚至可說已接近構築完成
從假設 - 練馬師有操練必殺技
到驗證 - 以賽績核對
到實踐 - 投注及回報
到理論 - 尚待考驗

而我的理論亦因一個假設開始,
假設:
馬主,練馬師,騎師集團比公眾更了解馬匹實力(或勝出機會),
集團投注時會盡量掩人耳目,避免利益被分薄,
所以集團投注時會選擇公眾不為意的時段,甚或無法跟進的時段(臨開閘前一刻),

以下驗證等部份我還未能開誠報公,請版友見諒,

希望此帖可以如拋磚引玉,版友討論如百花齊放

當然可實踐,問題只是成功與否.
如你認為藉討論能改良你的假設當可與大家分享.
一套可行的系統得來不易,不與分享實屬正常.

在這裡多謝seabear兄對本論壇的支持

[ 本帖最後由 okimg 於 18-10-2006 12:23 AM 編輯 ]

而我的理論亦因一個假設開始,
假設:
馬主,練馬師,騎師集團比公眾更了解馬匹實力(或勝出機會),
集團投注時會盡量掩人耳目,避免利益被分薄,
所以集團投注時會選擇公眾不為意的時段,甚或無法跟進的時段(臨開閘前一刻),

this point I agree with u and I did some analysis with this as well..
and found out.. TICKETS in last min is a key in game. just hard to follow
in just few seconds... normaly they willl bet few horse in a same time..
u hard to calculate wat the % of ur money should bet in those
horse in just few seconds left before gate open.

so I just monitor the tickets. and try to remark the horse, so next time I will know which
horse might have chance in next race.

所以集團投注時會選擇公眾不為意的時段,甚或無法跟進的時段(臨開閘前一刻)

整個研究以上句為驗証的關鍵。「臨開閘前一刻」表面是公眾最不以為意的時段，但亦是賽後公眾最留意的時段。即使是傳媒的賽果版，亦會展示五分鐘及最後賠率比較。

我認為知情人仕，根本不需要留在最後階段才落飛，如果可以，我會選擇分散不同時段落飛。至於「公眾最不以為意的時段」，我認為是，每場過關飛前後的時段，因為過關飛的影響無可估計，如果掌握得好，公眾最不容易分清賠率的變動原因，是由於過關飛還是真實投注。

其實，很多年前我已聽說到這個點子，但由於個人偏向以賽事基本因素選馬，未有兼顧有關範籌，如果seabear兄有興趣向此方面發展，不妨在坊間登記申請一些收費的賠率網站，再作研究分析。

當然啦，希望到時你能夠向大家展示一下你的發現就最好不過啦。最起碼，要pm埋比我喎，哈哈。:smile_48::smile_48::smile_48:

sea bear 兄平日不出聲，原來文筆是那麼好。
會詳細閱讀後再作回答

No matter black cat or white cat;  those can catch fish is good cat !! ha ha....show your ability to pick up winner to us to prove that you're a good cat ....  otherwise, just talk and no actual result... is no good to all of us.

[ 本帖最後由 好運贏家 於 18-10-2006 11:44 PM 編輯 ]

各位師兄的分享對於我呢D初哥來說實是萬幸, 多謝無私的分享

Its a good post.. just push it up

+ oil

I heard from a talk in which the speaker is the biggest winner in horse racing so far.

1. Set up module based on statistics based on at least 2,000 races. As more as you can.
2. Weight and verify parameters (how to find out coefficients, I dont know.)
3. Test your module
If your module is ok, not win yet.
4. Have good programmers and good pc at deep blue grade. It is as important as setting up a good module.
Of coz, use Kelly to bet.
Bet at the last minute becoz they need to know the E and closest real odds for calculate the bets. They have ways to place a lot of bets in 1 second by pc. The refresh rate of HKJC is 20~30 sec. They can wait the last horse enter the gate and then press the button and then u find the odds maybe so different after gate open. That's it. If the horse is ignored by public, will bet small amount occasionally. But wont bet overnite. Nobody can track his bets. Of coz, except HKJC.

Horse racing is mainly about stat.

Do not notice result fitting. Hong Kong race course is the most clean place in the world. VERY FAIR in his eyes.

Almost bet every race. (Becoz they have excellent tools. We amateur dont try....We only bet when we are confident. If no confidence? Just give money to charity directly. haha...)