Derby Day Race 4

第四場形勢相當單純：加得勁，大富之星，金星互片。

今季A跑道(沙田+快活谷)小弟常敗。都係最多買三場算了。

值搏賠率点計?

one more 超級神駒  

I wish I can calculate. But I am unable to do it at this moment. Generally I predict on Mon/Thur. Altough it is not that scientific, at least I have a better mind on how much I bet. Say, the most broken-heart lost this season:

至勇名駒 (負於快步速一役)

p = 0.825/8
D = 12 (我買果陣)
E = 0.10325*13 - 1 = 0.340625


Fraction (F) = 0.2 (temporary setting at this moment) (Assume唔用fraction la...)

C = 30,000

Max betting amount:
30000*0.340625/11=930

我買了Double 有凸。

不過，為了減少bias, 也可考慮將心水馬賠率調低後，再normalize全場馬匹心水。Backgroud: according to statistics of large sample size, the implied winning p of the public is pretty close to the actual p. Thus, after normalization, we have the "reasonable" updated odds instead of biased updated odds.

Normalization: (point out if I am wron.)

Say 3 horses in the race. Here is the odds:

Horse         Odds         Implied p                  Adjusted odds         Implied p2
No.1           1.8            0.4583                       unchange                 0.4583
No.2           2.5            0.33                                 2                        0.4125
No.3           3.9            0.2115                      unchange                 0.2115

                  total           0.9998                                                       1.0823

Thus, the normalised p = Implied p2/1.0823.

好似要做好多野。不過要戰勝17.5%抽水，要花功夫啊！話說回來，以上計算用execl 一秒就掂。:em35:

贏梗？搞笑啦。揀唔到馬用乜計算都輸。

我都想知值搏賠率怎樣計算,可否用實例 解釋一下,謝謝

值搏賠率 = 0.825/p

How to find out p? It is the core joy/ the key of the game. You already have your own experience to do that. If you are better than the public, you tend to win. Kelly's formula only max the profit and minimize the risk. It cannot turn loss into profit if we already have negative E :)

Good luck!

Add all together and you can get a Tierce!!! Ging

Small win :)