解決了問題

In fact, I have designed my own horse selection system in a way that I calculate the horses with fastest running time for the same distance in the current meeting and rank them after taking into account the increase/decrease the weight. Besides, I also calculate their last 400M speed and rank them. As a result, I will get the sequence of the horses indicating their best possible performance in the coming race. However, I can't calculate the impact of change of weight affecting the speed of the last 400M of each horse I rank. Besides, I guess for front-runners and back-finishers, the effect of the weight affecting the last 400M could be different.  The reason why I emphasize on the last 400M is that the speed of each horse in last 400M decides which horse is the winner irrespective of the race being a slow run or fast run race.  

After repeated reasoning, I conclude for a front-runner, the impact of the increase of weight is MORE DISADVATAGEOUS than a late-finisher in a normal pace and fast pace race .  The reason is that for a front-runner, she not only has to stand pressure with other other front-runners but also carrys more weight resulting in the speed of her last 400M slower as she utilizes her strengh in previous
sections already.   For a late-finisher, the situation is just opposite. She spends
less energy  in the previous sections as she runs comfortably and stays in the back.
As result, she benefits from running in the last 400M as she still has engery to compete
.
Conclusion: For  normal pace and fast pace races,  we have to bet on late-finishers with weight increased say 5 lbs rather than put  your bet on a fast-runner with the same weight increasd say 5 lbs if their previous performance of the same distance
more or less same.   For  slow run races, chances for both types runners become
almost same as the disadvantage of a slow pace race becomes an advantage of a customary pace exerted by the front-runner. Brothers, any comment?

well... i really know little about pacing and stuff...
but i do appreciate brother paul for your hard work and sharing.
i always agree that each one of us should build up our own system.
there would be errors and mistakes as well as failures in the process of putting theory into reality.
but with a never say die spirit, i always suggest to have a positive mind...
find out the mistakes and errors, correct them and approaching success.
with unlimited trial and errors, one would not be hard to find a close to success result.

thank you very much on your brilliant articles.

Coffee兄, thank you for your encouragement. I also appreciate any kinds of assessment/evaluation system to hit our target horses. There are a lot of different
theories in the field. Noone can say his system is the best among all. But  a brian-storming is important to beat down those related people including trainers, horse-owners (most of them don't know), and betting organization and the underground, perhaps.  Gather our wisdom,  All of us can do better and be a winner when the season
finishes.  It is a pain in an ass that we continue losing our money and energy to others
who they some information we don't know.  For example, trainers are used toextract
the blood of a horse to check  the red-blood cell counts if she is in a good form. They won't disclose such information to us. Besides, trainers change the mode of running.
They won't let us know before hand also.  There are many others.  We have to  get gather to break them and be an investor in horse racing, rather simply a gambler. Agree?

Paul
I agree it is not gamble, it is a cheat game, and I use mathematics intensively to calculate.

Hope one day I can post my selection.

I use mathematics because I believe all factors boils down to odds, and also there is  a large gang of people using fake information to cheat public money, like those recruited by dog club.

Welcome any brain-storming ideas and look forward anxiously  to your calculation to post. Thanks in advance. I do not agree with you that it is a cheat game.  The only thing is that
we, brothers ,do not have an almost perfect system to break the clues and become
a winner at the end.  Whatchee, to tell you honestly, I have a quite full set of theories to implement and very much to know some good brothers who are expert on software area to construct a computer system to put my knowledge of pac and speed, weight carried, draw together. Right now my method is done by hand with the aid of an excel file. I spend a lot
of time to do than. I want to make it more sophisticated to become a big winner. Can you help?
.