從谷草1200M找尋超級馬

I have a question, your analysis is very correct, but how can you predict a horse can achieve the last section time?

For comparsion and yardstick  purposes, I list the best finishing time and the best last 400M speed of the last season in Happy Valley 1200M races:

                           Best Finishing Time              Last 400M Speed*
Class 1             1.09.8                                       22.86
Class  2            1.09.7                                       22.62
Class 3             1.09.4                                       22.87
Class 4             1.09.9                                       23.23
Class 5             1.10.7                                       23.36

* The last 400M speed acheived in that race  which the  horse gave his best finishing time.

                        Best 400M Speed                  Finishing Time**
Class 1             22.39                                     1.10.1
Class 2             22.52                                      1.09.9
Class 3             22.41                                      1.10.2
Class 4             22.38                                      1.10.2
Class 5             22.55                                      1.11.6

** Finishing time acheived in that race which she gave the best 400M speed.

With my chart, you will readily know if the horse considered is a target horse or not. For
example, if you find a horse  in a race A, which speed in that class, say class 3  is faster than 1.09.4, you know she breaks the record of the last season's fastest finishing time. In a next race B, if  she competes in 1200M again, of course she stands a good chance to
get a place or win.  If an additional supporting evidence shows  her last 400M speed in that
race A closer  to the last season's best  last 400M  speed in that class i.e. 22.41 at the same time, you are confident that she wins almost for sure in the next race B. I put money in your brothers'  pockets!!

綫路精英   紅褲子  萬里駒   風陵渡 are my banker horse in Happy Valley 1200M. Reasons:
they fufil two stringent conditions:

1. they achieved last 2 section time  below 46.2 and the last 400M speed below 23.0
2. they achieved first 2 section time  below 47.1 in that races, only two lines below the average 2 section time in Class 3 last season.

博士同意！

我不同意以上的馬，因評分已到行人止步。要減多五六分先考慮啊。線路精英）升三班後兩度入位，估計要等降班，紅褲子）上季勝後負重評分已無利，萬里駒，升上二班後也是評分見底。風陵渡目前評分算是有微利，但負110磅如此輕磅還要排內檔也難勝的馬，要降班才有機會。相反八運寶，升班還可再贏，

[ 本帖最後由 贏馬人 於 11-7-2009 05:52 PM 編輯 ]

贏馬人兄, 歡迎加入討論,