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標題: about training pattern [打印本頁]

作者: rucrazy 時間: 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 標題: about training pattern

I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
but the really important things I think u guys need to concern is.

each horse have different training method... some horse maybe dont need to "save" his energy before race and still can have a good match,
some horses maybe need to "save" his eneryg before he get a good result...

some horse maybe not need to "test gate" to make him have a good refresh in race.
but some horse need to have a "test gate" to let him concern on next race.

the following is the result if we bet the horse in this kind of "training pattern" in the last 4 yrs.

year       win       total       rate    avg_odd

2003       18       73       25%       6.805
2004       53       162       33%       7.890
2005       53       192       28%       7.03
2006       39       127       31%       5.88

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 06:07 PM 編輯 ]

作者: Marshal 時間: 27-8-2006 10:46 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

Yes, you're totally right! Very smart!!!:em17:

So, that's why we need to keep track on the training record, on the one hand on the trainers', and on the other hand on the horses themselves. This enables us to check whether the trainer himself or the horse itself is going to "go horse".

That also explains the importance of training pattern and training seconds, which coffee and I are doing.

作者: freddie0212 時間: 28-8-2006 04:24 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
each horse have different training method... some horse maybe dont need to "save" his energy before race and still can have a good match,
some horses maybe need to "save" his eneryg before he get a good result...

some horse maybe not need to "test gate" to make him have a good refresh in race.
but some horse need to have a "test gate" to let him concern on next race.

the following is the result if we bet the horse in this kind of "training pattern" in the last 4 yrs.

year       win       total       rate    avg_odd

2003       18       73       25%       6.805
2004       53       162       33%       7.890
2005       53       192       28%       7.03
2006       39       127       31%       5.88
bu ...

。。。。
I don't get it. What is the "training pattern" you rely on, so that you can pick up the horses to bet??
You mean picking by deciding the horse need "saving energy" or not??
Or, you mean picking by deciding the horse need "test gate" or not??
Or, both??
。。。。
:em34::em34::em34:

作者: coffee 時間: 28-8-2006 07:32 AM

引用:

原帖由 freddie0212 於 28-8-2006 04:24 AM 發表

。。。。
I don't get it. What is the "training pattern" you rely on, so that you can pick up the horses to bet??
You mean picking by deciding the horse need "saving ener ...

同意Freddie講法。操練不足和慳力分別只差一線。若用自己感覺去決定，系統便過於主觀。
建議用某數據為參考再客觀決定馬匹需要的是慳力還是勤操。例如你可用馬匹過往兩個月曾出賽次數，出賽之間相隔日數等等

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 28-8-2006 07:33 AM 編輯 ]

作者: rucrazy 時間: 28-8-2006 09:49 AM

as wat I say "pattern" dat mean dats thing keep happen...

here is a example...

V096 9/3/2003 4/6/2003 8.7 1 '23223223.............
C050 26/12/2002 11/6/2003 5.5 3 '22322232............
A332 19/2/2003 14/6/2003 19 1 '22222222.............................
C071 15/3/2003 14/6/2003 6.4 3 '22322322..............................................
B423 11/1/2003 14/6/2003 6 4 '22222522...........................................
B187 10/5/2003 14/6/2003 18 2 '23223232..........................................
A161 4/6/2003 18/6/2003 7.1 4 '22232232.........................................
V205 20/11/2002 18/6/2003 22 3 '23223223........................................
B427 4/5/2003 22/6/2003 3.7 3 '22232223....................................

the first line is horse_id
the first date is the date the horse have a training pattern like in line 6 and have a good result in dat race
the second date is the date dat the horse have a same training patter like last time have a good result in same training pattern.
then 4th line is odds. and 5th line is position
last line is the training... 3 is "fast jump" 2 is "just walk" 4 is "test gate" 5 is "racing"
the "." is I just hide some.. coz I cant really show u all my reports as Its a secret of my report... but anyway.. I just want to tell u guys
dat they really have a "real" training when the trainer really want to win the race.

PS: btw.. sure I am not using human feeling to chose horse.. Its all depends the horse have the traning or not .. just like coffee's style. but in different way.

作者: rucrazy 時間: 28-8-2006 09:54 AM

and I just want to say out this point only..

"each horse have different training method"

作者: rucrazy 時間: 28-8-2006 10:02 AM

C109 15/2/2004 25/4/2004 58 1
C109 1/6/2003 15/2/2004 9.9 3
C109 1/3/2003 10/5/2003 2.7 6

just show one more example.. this horse really have a regular training.... even dat race I dont think the trainer and owner think they can really win..
but as the trainer try his best to train the horse before the important race.. so dats the result..

作者: coffee 時間: 28-8-2006 10:25 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 28-8-2006 09:49 AM 發表
as wat I say "pattern" dat mean dats thing keep happen...

here is a example...

V096 9/3/2003 4/6/2003 8.7 1 '23223223.............
C050 26/12/2002 11/6/2003 5.5 3 '22322232..... ...

IF YOU HAVE DATA THAT IS WITHOUT HUMAN FEELING, PROBLEMS SOLVED, MAN!!:em17:
THE ONLY THING DETERMINES WINNING OR LOSING IS YOUR BETTING FORMAT.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 28-8-2006 04:09 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

Expectation value (E)= 5.88x31% = 1.8223 very good la. much better than me.

If by Kelly's formula: Assume you have 10,000 capital. Use 0.2 as fraction

1st Bet = 10,000*0.2* (1.8223-1)/(5.88-1)
=HKD337

Nth bet = balance*0.2*(0.8223)/(4.88)

在數學上，你會贏最多錢！如果再檢驗一下賠率分布，得出不同賠率的 E，更佳！

reference for kelly's formula: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product ... glance&n=283155

作者: freddie0212 時間: 29-8-2006 07:38 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 28-8-2006 09:49 AM 發表
the first line is horse_id
the first date is the date the horse have a training pattern like in line 6 and have a good result in dat race
the second date is the date dat the horse have a same training patter like last time have a good result in same training pattern.
then 4th line is odds. and 5th line is position
last line is the training... 3 is "fast jump" 2 is "just walk" 4 is "test gate" 5 is "racing"
the "." is I just hide some.. coz I cant really show u all my reports as Its a secret of my report... but anyway.. I just want to tell u guys
dat they really have a "real" training when the trainer really want to win the race.

Thanks for your explanation. But, I still have somethings not sure. What's your meaning of "have a good result" ?? It means getting in place?? or finish in short lenght??

I agree with you that every horse have specific training pattern. But, to train an animal, which is always changing in forms, in conditions, in health, and in age, is it resonable to use the same pattern to train for winning specific race?? Is there any flexiblity to pick (e.g. 90% similar to the "good result" training pattern) ??

Pls don't mind my query, that's only discussion for horseracing.:smile_15:

作者: coffee 時間: 29-8-2006 07:45 PM

引用:

原帖由 freddie0212 於 29-8-2006 07:38 PM 發表

Thanks for your explanation. But, I still have somethings not sure. What's your meaning of "have a good result" ?? It means getting in place?? or finish in sh ...

我信每隻馬都有個別模式，但佔的只屬小數。
如東喜用拍跳一段及泥細閘，但東海龍卻反傳統。若佔的只屬小數，我不會放太多時間。

let me give you thre examples for reference...

作者: freddie0212 時間: 30-8-2006 03:03 AM

咦！？突然想到了，兩位的方法各有可取之處。正是：「大倉也有難勝馬，小倉靈活任佢玩。」

作者: rucrazy 時間: 30-8-2006 07:30 AM

"good result" mean lose in a short lenght...

agree with difference age and case need a difference training pattern. but I dont mind if it only happen 1 in 10 .coz the return odds already higher than the money we lose on dat kind of horse.

我信每隻馬都有個別模式，但佔的只屬小數。

ya, so I only bet the 小數 .

I am a person who also using kelly as the betting method o.O

=MAX(M3*(E3-1/J3)*J3/(E3-1),0)

:)

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 30-8-2006 11:54 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 30-8-2006 07:30 AM 發表
"good result" mean lose in a short lenght...

agree with difference age and case need a difference training pattern. but I dont mind if it only happen 1 in 10 .coz the return odds alrea ...

呵呵…我從WB的talk 中才知Kelly's 的好處。後在"計得精彩"獲知算式。R 兄有冇計臨場計快D ?

作者: freddie0212 時間: 30-8-2006 09:03 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 30-8-2006 07:30 AM 發表
I am a person who also using kelly as the betting method o.O

=MAX(M3*(E3-1/J3)*J3/(E3-1),0)

Oh! Professional.:49::em17:
Can you tell the meanings of the variables in the above formula??
M3 = ??
E3 = ??
J3 = ??

Thanks

作者: rucrazy 時間: 31-8-2006 03:46 PM

To Freddie,

m3  = 一季資本
e3  = 賠率
j3 = 估計勝出率

To Phantomhorse,

wat's u mean by 有冇計臨場計快D?
I am using Excel just type in the "real odds from hkjc" then the excel will tell u how to bet.. btw. I have roundup the betting
money as $10 too. so just follow the excel file..

anyway. here is the code in excel.

=MAX(H3*(E4-1/J4)*J4/(E4-1),0) (<---- this is how much u need to bet)
=IF(C4="win",H3+E4*G4,H3)-G4-I4  (<---- this is calculate how much u left after the bet)

btw, I am using 計得精彩's formula to reformat this formula... coz its take too much time to use the formula
provided by the book. And seems too diffucult for us if we really dont have too much to bet. so I do it in
a simple way like the formula I show u here.

作者: nobu-k 時間: 31-8-2006 04:38 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

good ~ 最難諗既我覺得就係究竟邊d馬係要留力熱身等等，如果捉得倒邊隻馬賽前做d乜係為o左乜既話對投注真係好大幫助，有時睇操練資料試閘等等既野都得唔出一個好結論，例如一隻馬試閘做出快時間，咁代表乜呢？可能係好似好多告東尼博殺馬跳一段21.x咁去同隻馬做最後衝刺跟住果場就博殺，但又可能係因為隻馬自己太急燥先做出咁既走勢，之後出賽可能只係為同佢收下火熱下身，好多時究竟邊樣先o岩真係賽後先知 .....

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 31-8-2006 04:41 PM

我也是用計得精彩的。但有時要計Q，PQ (自已estimate)，如遇上多項投注，太慢。(我最後3分鐘或更遲才決定下注的。)

另按：我與CXWONG有數面之緣。當時，未出書，仲唔知佢賭馬！年幾前啦。佢\可能唔記得我囉。

作者: rucrazy 時間: 31-8-2006 04:50 PM

dats why I only betting on WIN at this moment... calcuate Q and PQ take too much times....
and I try to use Kelly to calcuate Q... but seems the formula is quite difficult to edit to Q mode from my win mode in Excel.

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