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標題: some analysis about distance(same course) [打印本頁]

作者: rucrazy 時間: 31-8-2006 04:34 PM 標題: some analysis about distance(same course)

the following is a result of

if the horse run in place or lose in a short length (like less than 3 horses) in the same distance(same course).
wat happen if the horse next run in same distance(same course) again.

we find out total have 5768 horses in last 2 years 2004 - 2006 seasons qualified this condition.

and here is the result.

win 11.41%
Q 22.42%
P 32.45%

作者: coffee 時間: 31-8-2006 06:19 PM

thank you...it's useful, will study that in details.

points added

作者: lung 時間: 31-8-2006 07:36 PM

有建設，
有分加，
歡迎歡迎:smile_15:

作者: freddie0212 時間: 1-9-2006 12:01 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 04:34 PM 發表
some analysis about distance(same course)

the following is a result of

if the horse run in place or lose in a short length (like less than 3 horses) in the same distance(same course).
wat happen if the horse next run in same distance(same course) again.

we find out total have 5768 horses in last 2 years 2004 - 2006 seasons qualified this condition.

and here is the result.

Just to clarify,

same distance (same course) means
(same distance and same course ) , Or
(same distance or same course) ??

Coz that's very important message for your statement.

作者: rucrazy 時間: 1-9-2006 12:30 AM

same distance and same course

作者: lung 時間: 1-9-2006 08:54 AM

rucrazy 兄，你點揀馬？
一睇有咁多資料就知唔係普通馬迷

作者: coffee 時間: 1-9-2006 09:52 AM

引用:

原帖由 lung 於 1-9-2006 08:54 AM 發表
rucrazy 兄，你點揀馬？
一睇有咁多資料就知唔係普通馬迷

like me, rucrazy bro. look at training pattern...

http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... &extra=page%3D1
http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... &extra=page%3D2

so am I a 普通馬迷 to you? hahaha

作者: rucrazy 時間: 1-9-2006 10:50 AM

ya.. base on training plus more other factors , for example

http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... &extra=page%3D1

:)

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 1-9-2006 10:56 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 04:34 PM 發表
the following is a result of

if the horse run in place or lose in a short length (like less than 3 horses) in the same distance(same course).
wat happen if the horse next run in same distance ...

I am quite interested to know the average odds of such 11.41% winners, do you have such record ?

作者: rucrazy 時間: 1-9-2006 01:59 PM

actually u can use the excel file i put here to calculate urself..

for the 11.41% the avg odd is 7.2786798.

so if u use fix amount to bet. u will lose money.

so its not a report show u wat to buy, just give u some ideas how to pick the horse .

作者: booking 時間: 1-9-2006 02:27 PM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 04:34 PM 發表
the following is a result of

if the horse run in place or lose in a short length (like less than 3 horses) in the same distance(same course).
wat happen if the horse next run in same distance ...

It's really useful.....thx

作者: 社排2 時間: 1-9-2006 05:30 PM

USEFUL,THANK YOU!!:em17:

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 2-9-2006 01:07 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 1-9-2006 01:59 PM 發表
actually u can use the excel file i put here to calculate urself..

for the 11.41% the avg odd is 7.2786798.

so if u use fix amount to bet. u will lose money.

so its not a report show u wa ...

I do believe every research or data analysis we did on horse racing are aim to win money. It is obviously that 11.41% winner plus average odd ~ 7.28 cannot bet by fix amount or even by fix percentage of a pool. Do you have an idea on how to make use of such findings to win ?

作者: rucrazy 時間: 2-9-2006 01:59 AM

its just one of the factor dat the horse have chance to win. so its a factor we need to take care and think about this horse before we del it in our betting list. if u find out the horse under this condtion have a good training. have a good jockey( as u think) or even have some weakness horse in the same race. then dat mean its a good chance to bet this kind of horse. so the rate will not be just 11.41%.

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 2-9-2006 02:28 AM

Let's take a look into last season. There were totally 708 races, i.e. 708 winners. And totally number of horses taken place were roughly 9100. If you randomly select a horse to bet win without any other reason, the prop. you will win is 708/9100 = 7.78%. While this prop. compare with the stated 11.41%, less than 4 winners different after bet 100 times, what do you think ?

作者: rucrazy 時間: 2-9-2006 02:35 AM

FOR 7.78% u need more than odd 12 to win a horse
FOR 11.41% u need more than odd 8.7 to win a horse

in the horse racing field.. we talk about the return rate more than accurate rate. coz if u want a better accurate.. just pick the favourite. but the return rate will be lose for sure.

the way we wanna make money from horse racing is "the return rate" not the accurate rate of the horse u pick.

hmm.maybe my english is not good enough to explain. but i dont know well about typing chinese..

ur welcome to ask more question.

thanks.

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 2-9-2006 03:31 AM

It seems you misunderstood what I want to point out. My point is while any research or data analysis which cannot aim to win money, we have to modify and make more assumptions to improve. Otherwise, such research or data analysis are meaningless, do you agree ?

意思是 : 若然所做出的研究或數據分析是對贏錢沒有顯見的意義時, 便應更深入剖析, 改良及假設去改善, 否則這些東西便是沒有用處.

11.41% avg odds is 7.28
7.78% avg odds is 10.18

你認為那一個有意思 ? 我倒覺得 2 個均無意思. 按你所述, 一匹馬在同場地同路程輸近再出同場地同路程預計會有表現, 差不多係人都會有這個想法, 有何希冀 ? 只得 1 成多的勝出率兼多數熱門, 全是欠投注價值的東西.

若然你可分辨出那些會 win, 那些會輸, 那才是價值. 即如我先前所述 "make assumptions"; 例如, 將這些馬匹按齡, 厩, 班, 賠率, 騎師等等區分. 假設這個條件隔晚 5 倍以下全勝, 10 倍以上全敗, 那才是意義.

作者: rucrazy 時間: 2-9-2006 04:46 AM

一匹馬在同場地同路程輸近再出同場地同路程預計會有表現, 差不多係人都會有這個想法, 有何希冀 ? 只得 1 成多的勝出率兼多數熱門, 全是欠投注價值的東西.

dats why if we find out a horse under this condition but in a good odds. (might have good odds becoz other horse are over bet)
then we need to condiser about the horse under this condition.

dats why I keep saying this is not the whole idea to pick the horse. but as a tools to find out the horse is mean to bet or not.

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