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作者: coffee 時間: 17-1-2007 04:17 PM 標題: 有個研究課題想討論一下

何謂有飛呢？
怎樣才是真熱門？

看看自己的隔夜賠率表有以下啟發：

第一場為例，從隔夜大熱計

嘯傲天河 5.7大熱
拖順序熱門Q

12新勝威 380
6經緯渡 280 (明顯熱d)
1盈峰 650
5馬駿寶 300 (明顯熱d)
8健康大師 320 (明顯熱d)
3雷風恆 570
4起得勁 410 (明顯熱d)
9得寸進尺 740
10嘉驄 2360
7全德 1140 (明顯熱d)
2美好世界 2870

咁代表4,5,6,7,8有Q飛?
抑或12,1有W 飛？

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 17-1-2007 04:20 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 精英大師 時間: 17-1-2007 04:50 PM

呢個方法, 理論上是可以

但隔夜投注額太少了,
用隔夜賠率來計, 偏差太大,
我就唔會睇

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 17-1-2007 06:07 PM

兩隻馬，差不多，冇明顯優點的馬W熱，Q熱，QP熱，其他對手奇冷，真熱。旺國手

今晚有靚歡騰

未跑己知必熱，對手偏熱，假熱。黃金好勁。

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 17-1-2007 06:10 PM

引用:

原帖由 精英大師 於 17-1-2007 04:50 PM 發表
呢個方法, 理論上是可以

但隔夜投注額太少了,
用隔夜賠率來計, 偏差太大,
我就唔會睇

同意。隔夜飛不值參考。錢太少，random error 太大了。

作者: 神鵰大俠 時間: 18-1-2007 12:16 AM

我也想發表下,coffee介唔介意?

作者: kittylkc 時間: 18-1-2007 12:26 AM

我唔係咁睇wor.......隔夜飛好有用處..可以反映邊隻係真假熱門

作者: rucrazy 時間: 18-1-2007 12:31 AM

隔夜飛 actually can give u some hints for picking horses...
my opion is 隔夜飛 is a place to "misleading" the public's tickets as its will appear the odds in the newspaper.

and some special "people" might bet the horse since the pool start... a little by little.. as they dont want public
can follow the "big tickets" while race start soon...

anyway..its just some example...

according to my research about night tickets... I will say dat night tickets is quite work.

作者: rucrazy 時間: 18-1-2007 12:32 AM

引用:

原帖由 kittylkc 於 18-1-2007 12:26 AM 發表
我唔係咁睇wor.......隔夜飛好有用處..可以反映邊隻係真假熱門

ur right.

作者: Justinian 時間: 18-1-2007 10:09 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 17-1-2007 04:17 PM 發表
何謂有飛呢？
怎樣才是真熱門？

看看自己的隔夜賠率表有以下啟發：

第一場為例，從隔夜大熱計

嘯傲天河 5.7大熱
拖順序熱門Q

12新勝威 380
[color=Red ...

Coffee兄出此課題，其實係想找出 (a) "如何分析隔夜賠率？"
，還是 (b) "隔夜賠率的存在價值呢"？

若是課題 (b) ，記憶中似乎曾經講過。
答案仍然是各自堅持，信的繼續信，唔信的繼續唔信！

若是課題 (a) ，不妨找班次高一點的場次作分析。
(如昨晚的第5場及第8場，both [吉利大哥] & [金同德] are the master of the mainstream with no doubt , and you can't find this in Race No. 1)
各信眾亦可提出意見討論。
:33:

作者: coffee 時間: 18-1-2007 10:17 AM

引用:

原帖由 神鵰大俠 於 18-1-2007 12:16 AM 發表
我也想發表下,coffee介唔介意?

my pleasure to hearng from you...please

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 18-1-2007 03:48 PM

想研究隔夜賠率的參考價值, Forest 不就是箇中高手嗎 ?

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 18-1-2007 04:41 PM

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作者: rucrazy 時間: 18-1-2007 04:43 PM

引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 18-1-2007 04:41 PM 發表

同意隔夜飛更能反映幕後對馬匹機會睇法，
的確有極少數陣前排山倒海的馬匹有好表現，
但細心研究，輸的，佔九成！

Totaly agree. dats why I give up on live odds reseach during racing day already...

I do agree dat might be sometimes live odds can represent a chance of horse to get place...
buts at the same time... too many horses odds have special "change" . its too hard to
modify which one is the real one -.-.. and the time between race to race about 30 mins only...
I dont think we have enought time to do too many things in the same time during racing..

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 18-1-2007 04:57 PM

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作者: freddie0212 時間: 25-1-2007 03:40 AM

我的睇法直接一點。

假設一場馬有12匹，獨贏投注有12項，連贏投注有66項，可想而知，連贏彩池的注項多出很多，即每個注項的投注金額相對較少，要推郁個別連贏位賠率，所需要的金額亦相應較少。因此，同樣數量的金額投放在「獨贏」及「連贏」彩池，「獨贏」賠率的落飛較不明顯。

由此推論，若某匹馬的「獨贏」有明顯的落飛現象，即表示「真銀」數量較大。

連贏彩池較為分散，若要在連贏彩池找落飛馬，我會找出某匹馬拖各熱門，是否有明顯的偏熱跡象。 (註：必須是一胆拖多腳的連贏位有明顯偏熱跡象)，這樣的落飛馬，「真銀」數量亦不菲。

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 25-1-2007 09:08 AM

投注策略 and 值博率 + overnight odds = 長線有斬獲。

作者: whatchee 時間: 25-1-2007 12:07 PM

引用:

原帖由 好運贏家 於 25-1-2007 09:08 AM 發表
投注策略 and 值博率 + overnight odds = 長線有斬獲。

how to calculate 值博率 ? tks

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 25-1-2007 12:39 PM

引用:

原帖由 whatchee 於 25-1-2007 12:07 PM 發表

how to calculate 值博率 ? tks

hkheadline.com has good reference

http://www.hkheadline.com/blog/r ... W16115&id=12336

[ 本帖最後由好運贏家於 25-1-2007 12:42 PM 編輯 ]

作者: whatchee 時間: 25-1-2007 02:27 PM

thank you, it seems that it compares against an odd in one's mind, that is very subjective,
do you have any objective calculation?

Hope someone can shed some light on this. tks

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 25-1-2007 02:46 PM

i'm afraid i cannot speak here, will pm you later !

[ 本帖最後由好運贏家於 25-1-2007 02:53 PM 編輯 ]

作者: win123123 時間: 26-1-2007 01:50 AM

讓小弟發表一點理論,在開跑前12小時,留意最熱單T及四連還的馬匹,再對當日的大熱門,可反影大熱的真假.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 26-1-2007 06:17 PM

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作者: 好運贏家 時間: 27-1-2007 03:22 PM

引用:

原帖由 win123123 於 26-1-2007 01:50 AM 發表
讓小弟發表一點理論,在開跑前12小時,留意最熱單T及四連還的馬匹,再對當日的大熱門,可反影大熱的真假.

Welcome to exchange your idea here or by PM !

作者: chanda2002 時間: 27-1-2007 03:44 PM

真熱門是指由琴晚到開跑時都係咁熱的
就叫大熱門啦~~

作者: real 時間: 29-1-2007 08:56 AM

Smart money would never NEVER place a big bet overnight. I do not want to insult your intelligence here, so I am not giving you the reasons. But the answer is just common sense. This is tote betting, the final div does not depend on when you place the bets; be it at overnight or at the jump time!

The press would not tell you the truth because there is a huge market for the over-night edition newspapers!!

This pre-post betting idea had been existing for hundreds of years at England. Bookies would frame a market and bet on a future event---for instance, betting on the Derby of the coming year. There are also fixed-odds early bird betting ( which is similar to this over-night odds we are discussing here), but usually they bet on very bad percentages and it'd wise to leave the betting till jump time.

Some oversea bookies bet fixed-odds on HK races. The 'firmers' are usually the ones they bet 13-1 while the tote is betting 20-1. Then the radio men would all yell " Look, there are huge money on such and such that comes down from 20-1......". Well, even if the bookies don't bet back the tote; it does not take too much money to bring down a 20-1 shot!!

作者: whatchee 時間: 5-6-2008 02:08 PM

引用:

原帖由 real 於 29-1-2007 08:56 AM 發表
Smart money would never NEVER place a big bet overnight. I do not want to insult your intelligence here, so I am not giving you the reasons. But the answer is just common sense. This is tote bet ...

real

just to want make sure I understand you correctly

more reliable drop are odds between 13 and 20?

tote , you mean the public?

thanks

作者: fatboy123456 時間: 5-6-2008 04:13 PM

其實有冇話季頭季中或季尾隔夜飛特別準???
我自己睇係季尾
仲有就係呢d飛既手法成日變
有d就冇黎頭既變左大熱門..
可能係嚇到你地唔夠膽買
第2日由4.x回到1x倍照嬴....
好難判別~!

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 5-6-2008 04:19 PM

引用:

原帖由 fatboy123456 於 5-6-2008 04:13 PM 發表
其實有冇話季頭季中或季尾隔夜飛特別準???
我自己睇係季尾
仲有就係呢d飛既手法成日變
有d就冇黎頭既變左大熱門..
可能係嚇到你地唔夠膽買
第2日由4.x回到1x倍照嬴....
好難判別~!

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