賽日密馬 - Powered by Discuz! Board

標題: Anyone likes cooperation? - closed [打印本頁]

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 09:26 AM 標題: Anyone likes cooperation? - closed

Requirement :
- no succssful betting strategy yet
- likes calculation and work a lot on evaluation
- still keep losing
- believe that betting can be PURELY CALCULATED - no bias against specific jockey, stable, class, track etc
- can tolerate failure or losing (the pure formula can't be worked out in a few days)
- willing to share his own thought (100%) on horse racing with me (me too, of course)
- believe in 仁者無敵
- a little bit crazy

Please leave a message here, thanks.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 29-1-2007 11:50 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 09:45 AM

Just thought a guy's power is not enough...

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-1-2007 12:00 PM

- believe that betting can be PURELY CALCULATED - no bias against specific jockey, stable, class, track etc

My friend... they are not bias... they are the CONSIDERABLE factors in racing!

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 12:21 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 26-1-2007 12:00 PM 發表
- believe that betting can be PURELY CALCULATED - no bias against specific jockey, stable, class, track etc

My friend... they are not bias... they are the CONSIDERABLE factors in racing!

hehe, you got me!!

I should have used the wrong wording... I should say "not rely on individual jockey, stable, class, track etc

I know it's important, but I don't like those factors that don't have sufficient samples or too "personality" (e.g. different rule to different stable), you know.

Maybe I'll turn to you in the future :)

By the way, brother, do you have any comment on my "instant buy" method?

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 26-1-2007 12:26 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 26-1-2007 01:59 PM

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 02:11 PM

引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 26-1-2007 01:59 PM 發表

我可接受任何類型新思維，受唔受我玩先！:smile_15:

Thanks so much for your support.  I'm really appreciated and feel great honour.

You know, I want to find a guy which is willing to go in the SAME direction as me, and develope our direction together.  That is, who are willing to develope the same rule with me.  So, we'll expose all our rules to each other, even we may bet separately.

I think this will be very diff to you.  Your 山埃 tips got so much success and reputation.  I'm not expecting you'll disclose it to me.

If you want to know my ideas and express your comment to them, you can still go to my topic instead (e.g. mm tips or instant bet).  You'll be very welcomed.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 26-1-2007 02:19 PM

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 02:31 PM

[quote]原帖由 山埃博士 於 26-1-2007 02:19 PM 發表

咁留比其他有志會員！
幫手宣傳

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 26-1-2007 02:39 PM

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-1-2007 03:20 PM

Instant buy is very difficult to do it! It changes from time to time. I think, mainly based on the pre-race analysis is the must. Instant change -- unless you have many great resources and know the rate, no good chance to win.

I only agree instant bet is good for deciding the amount you bet. Not for finding good horses to bet.

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 03:38 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 26-1-2007 03:20 PM 發表
Instant buy is very difficult to do it! It changes from time to time. I think, mainly based on the pre-race analysis is the must. Instant change -- unless you have many great resources and know the ...

I see.  As what I expect, it won't be that simple.

On the previous racing days, seems many stables got good results on consecutive races.  Just want to study to see if it can become a formula.

The current result is still not bad.  Maybe I need to use more data to reveal its real feasibility.

As I said, most people got success needs a lot of time of studying and watching videos.  I can't do that at the moment, due to time and EQ consideration.  So, I just try to evalulate my method,  to see how far I can proceed.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-1-2007 04:22 PM

Understand. Yes, your stable analysis look good. I also find Class-4 1600 is a good hint! I have been sucessful for consecutive days. I am not sure if it works for a long time because John Size and Moore are sleeping or just waking up ... then the condition will change becoz those 2 stables do cause DEEP IMPACT.

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 04:48 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 26-1-2007 04:22 PM 發表
Understand. Yes, your stable analysis look good. I also find Class-4 1600 is a good hint! I have been sucessful for consecutive days. I am not sure if it works for a long time because John Size and ...

I've read some old newspaper but still not quite understand your Class-4 1600 theory. I still found a number of races with more than 1 cold horse in first 3. Maybe I need to digest further.

Stable analysis is very interesting. It's the first time that I work in this area and already found it contains great information. Even for very straightforward, it can already generate some profit.

作者: whatchee 時間: 26-1-2007 05:26 PM

Little fat,

I think I am doing the same as you, but not as sophisicated as you, and I am much crazier than you.

I use the odd at the race as guidance, as it should be the consolidation of all behaviours, and use information till several minutes before race, still working on it.

I am willing to partner with you, but without a base is difficult to start.

If you are interested, lets talk further, may be pm or email

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 05:57 PM

引用:

原帖由 whatchee 於 26-1-2007 05:26 PM 發表
Little fat,

I think I am doing the same as you, but not as sophisicated as you, and I am much crazier than you.

I use the odd at the race as guidance, as it should be the consolidation of al ...

Great, whatchee! Finally found one potential partner!!! Welcome!

Let's wait till Sat or Sun to see whether more to join!!

作者: katanwillis 時間: 26-1-2007 06:11 PM

I also want to join . What can i do?

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 06:17 PM

引用:

原帖由 katanwillis 於 26-1-2007 06:11 PM 發表
I also want to join . What can i do?

Welcome, katanwillis!!!

Please wait for 1-2 days to see how many guys join.

But in order to increase your chance to join (as there may be quite a number of guys here), would you please introduce yourself here, briefly? Thanks.

Hope can find someone who is willing and able to contribute...

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 26-1-2007 06:25 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 26-1-2007 07:46 PM 標題: push only

push, push

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 26-1-2007 09:33 PM

唔知重有無朋友加入呢...

作者: chanda2002 時間: 26-1-2007 09:56 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 26-1-2007 09:26 AM 發表
Requirement :
- no succssful betting strategy yet
- likes calculation and work a lot on evaluation
- still keep losing
- believe that betting can be PURELY CALCULATED - no bias against specific ...

good~~:em70::em70::em70::em70::em70:

請不要毫無意義地灌水，你被扣20分。

[ 本帖最後由 phantomhorse 於 27-1-2007 11:49 AM 編輯 ]

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 26-1-2007 10:09 PM 標題: 得罪晒...

:em22:

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 26-1-2007 11:26 PM

wersocrazy is the group account

Welcome that katanwillis has joined the team!!

Wish teamwork brings success.

[ 本帖最後由 wersocrazy 於 26-1-2007 11:28 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 26-1-2007 11:54 PM

I can at least contribute some overnight odds hints to you, if you don't mind to share your final analysis result to me as well.

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 27-1-2007 12:57 AM

引用:

原帖由 好運贏家 於 26-1-2007 11:54 PM 發表
I can at least contribute some overnight odds hints to you, if you don't mind to share your final analysis result to me as well.

Hi brother,

Again, I'm greatly appreciated and honoured to know that you're willing to join the team and contribute.

Sorry that my aim of building the team is hope to find some members that're willing to :
- develope the same formula together
- share everything he worked
- every member bet following the same rules and each earn or lose more or less the same amount together.

For this reason, I'm looking for some people that still hasn't found way to drive profit, and willing to disclose everything about horse betting in the team.  Of course I'll do so (even actually I've already disclosed a lot before).

For brother, you already got great success this season and won the capital for the whole racing year.  I believe you won't disclose your successful formula to us.  Maybe you just want to share some ideas.  But however, this is not the purpose of the team.

I'm very sorry again.  Hope you understand and won't mind.

I've already talked the same things to some successful brothers, such as doctor.  It may be just my problem, or crazy thought.

作者: coffee 時間: 27-1-2007 09:11 AM

very interesting....crazy team

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 27-1-2007 09:27 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 27-1-2007 09:11 AM 發表
very interesting....crazy team

Well, one of the condition of the team is that each team member must be a little crazy...

And of course, forming the team is very crazy!!

作者: faloyan88 時間: 27-1-2007 01:09 PM

Does crazy means winning together or thinking the instant betting means.....

作者: 思琳 時間: 27-1-2007 01:11 PM

我想問有什麼可以做,我唔係好明??:smile_13:

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-1-2007 02:04 PM

引用:

原帖由思琳於 27-1-2007 01:11 PM 發表
我想問有什麼可以做,我唔係好明??:smile_13:

1. 先看P.1條款睇吓是否符合
2. 如果想加入, 請在此留一message, 講吓點解要俾你加入
3. 等通知啦,

好似見工, 知無?

記住,一定要loser同願意share everything among the team, including betting amount and all formulas (me too, of course. And for sure I'm still a loser)

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 27-1-2007 02:09 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-1-2007 02:07 PM

引用:

原帖由 faloyan88 於 27-1-2007 01:09 PM 發表
Does crazy means winning together or thinking the instant betting means.....

1.Well, first of all, forming a team in this forum is crazy. Joining the crazy team is a also crazy guy
2. Can accept crazy ideas and and give crazy ideas (brain storming)
3. Won't blame others in the team if they say something crazy
4. Sharing and disclosing all your own method to us means you're crazy, right?
5. Imagining we can success is crazy...
6. Only crazy guys will get crazy amount of return :)
...

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 27-1-2007 02:08 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 27-1-2007 03:15 PM

引用:

原帖由 wersocrazy 於 27-1-2007 12:57 AM 發表

Hi brother,

Again, I'm greatly appreciated and honoured to know that you're willing to join the team and contribute.

Sorry that my aim of building the team is hope to find some members th ...

Never mind ! indeed i wanted to get some more information/ idea for fine-turning the way of bet as I did from time from to time and don't know this is not fit for your team needs.

Hope your team have a success bet announcement soonest !!

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 27-1-2007 05:09 PM

小胖兄, 見你的「閱讀權限」只有 40, 為何可開一個臨場買馬法 - 研究唶 - [閱讀權限 100] 的貼 ?

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 27-1-2007 05:11 PM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 27-1-2007 05:09 PM 發表
小胖兄, 見你的「閱讀權限」只有 40, 為何可開一個臨場買馬法 - 研究唶 - [閱讀權限 100] 的貼 ?

更奇怪的是 wersocrazy 兄的「閱讀權限」只有 30, 為何可瀏覧及回復 ? :smile_49:

作者: Justinian 時間: 27-1-2007 07:03 PM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 27-1-2007 05:11 PM 發表

更奇怪的是 wersocrazy 兄的「閱讀權限」只有 30, 為何可瀏覧及回復 ? :smile_49:

賭鬼兄似乎是問題人物，每事問！:smile_30:

小胖兄的「閱讀權限」set 100，
除佢自己之外就只有版主可睇。\r
或許是[行為反射]吧！:smile_30:

我又多管閒事了！:smile_30:

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-1-2007 07:04 PM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 27-1-2007 05:11 PM 發表

更奇怪的是 wersocrazy 兄的「閱讀權限」只有 30, 為何可瀏覧及回復 ? :smile_49:

賭鬼兄,
係有D複雜 :

1. 只要你有約100威望,就可set新文章的「閱讀權限」\r
2. 「閱讀權限」可set為高過自己的「閱讀權限」,最高值為約255
3. 雖然文章的「閱讀權限」高過自己,但由於是開topic者,可有一切閱讀改動權力\r

1. wersocrazy係小弟新開一個account, 俾Crazy Team 組員共用
2. 當wersocrazy寄文章前, 我用"小胖"更改文章之「閱讀權限」為0
3. 所以wersocrazy可寫文章
4. 寫完文章後改回100

目的是用wersocrazy寫多些文章增加其威望(可做多D嘢如改頭像)

(打到手軟,)明無?

另外set「閱讀權限」為100係因為有D Crazy惗法亂up甘四驚俾人丙...

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 27-1-2007 07:08 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 27-1-2007 09:38 PM

原來小胖兄台係電腦及英語奇才 ............怪不得咁主張科學化分析賽馬!

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-1-2007 09:56 PM

引用:

原帖由 好運贏家 於 27-1-2007 09:38 PM 發表
原來小胖兄台係電腦及英語奇才 ............怪不得咁主張科學化分析賽馬!

咪玩啦,好運兄(果然好名),係打中文太慢(兼成日打錯), 同鍾意打RPG唶(即解謎)

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 28-1-2007 09:55 AM

最後召集
:smile_38:

作者: 防火門 時間: 28-1-2007 10:41 AM

Alright! so let's give me to join

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 28-1-2007 05:27 PM

引用:

原帖由 防火門 於 28-1-2007 10:41 AM 發表
Alright! so let's give me to join

防火門兄,

Have you read the instructions? (list below again)

1. 先看P.1條款睇吓是否符合
2. 如果想加入, 請在此留一message, 講吓點解要俾你加入
3. 等通知啦,

好似見工, 知無?

記住,一定要loser同願意share everything among the team, including betting amount and all formulas (me too, of course. And for sure I'm still a loser)

小胖

作者: 小胖 時間: 28-1-2007 07:27 PM 標題: Let me sell myself first...

28-Jan-07 小胖之投注結果 (賽前策略,無即場投注) :

1. mm tips : $10 each ($210 total)
R1 : 1,10
R2 : 10,2,3                ($129)
R3 : 12,4,1 <第二...>
R4 : 1,3,8,10,14<第二...>
R5 : 7,13
R6 : 4,11                   ($146.5)
R7 : 1,5,12                ($32)
R8 :
R9 : 11

2. 極度狂熱馬匹 : $200 ($200 total) => $430

3. 臨場買馬法 : 未定, 可能要同小胖去街唔買

4. 插班初出基金 : $10 each win ($80 total)
R2(4)
R3(3,5)
R4(6,7)          (7 out $10)
R6(6)
R7(6)
R9(11)

total bet = $490
total return = $747.5 (+$257.5)

It's posted in Team Page before the race.  Not very impressive (and of course won't win every time).  It's the reason that I'm looking for cooperation.

But without real cooperation, sharing and teamwork, there won't be real improvement.

On the other hand, other teammembers may have their own methods and each can find which rule can be used and shared in the team.  We can help each other's rule if we found it's valuable.

Hope...

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 28-1-2007 07:31 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 28-1-2007 07:35 PM

引用:

原帖由 Justinian 於 27-1-2007 07:03 PM 發表

賭鬼兄似乎是問題人物，每事問！:smile_30:

小胖兄的「閱讀權限」set 100，
除佢自己之外就只有版主可睇。\r
或許是[行為反射]吧！:smile_30:

我又多管閒事了！:smile_30:

問這個問題的原因是, 若我是一個新人, 眼見個個貼也有「閱讀權限」兼有些還要 100, 那我會覺得沒趣. 若小胖兄有這樣的要求, 建議向 Coffee 申請一個私人地方吧. 眼見有好幾個大部份人都睇唔到的貼子, 上來實在有點掃興感覺.

作者: 小胖 時間: 28-1-2007 07:41 PM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 28-1-2007 07:35 PM 發表

問這個問題的原因是, 若我是一個新人, 眼見個個貼也有「閱讀權限」兼有些還要 100, 那我會覺得沒趣. 若小胖兄有這樣的要求, 建議向 Coffee 申請一個私人地方吧. 眼見有好幾個大部份人都睇唔到的貼子, 上來實在 ...

賭鬼兄,
你說得對,小弟忽略這點.
謝指點, 一定跟進.

作者: chanda2002 時間: 28-1-2007 07:51 PM

good~~~~~~

作者: 小胖 時間: 28-1-2007 09:04 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 28-1-2007 07:41 PM 發表

賭鬼兄,
你說得對,小弟忽略這點.
謝指點, 一定跟進.

攪掂! hehe

:em22:

不過,睇黎無mud人好似小弟咁crazy...

又要做獨行俠..
:em29:

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 28-1-2007 09:13 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 12:41 AM 標題: 真係冷清...

:smile_45:

作者: real 時間: 29-1-2007 09:11 AM

Just a joke to wind you up:

What do you mean by 'believe in 仁者無敵'? This is one good phase but how is it applied to horse-punting? Do you hand out money to strangers on the street once you have had a big wins?

作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 09:31 AM

引用:

原帖由 real 於 29-1-2007 09:11 AM 發表
Just a joke to wind you up:

What do you mean by 'believe in 仁者無敵'? This is one good phase but how is it applied to horse-punting? Do you hand out money to strangers on the street once you ha ...

Thanks for the joke.  It's very funny...

The phase is something that you tell yourself.  So you want to join a team to sneak something?  Or wants real cooperation and earning together? Do you want to make more friends or enemies.

You can do either of them.  But for me, I come here to find friends, partners and improvements.  And I believe that "Teamwork bring success".

On the other hand, 仁者 doesn't mean being a stupid guy.  I also means punishing the bad and lazy guys, and praise for the good and hard-working guys.  So, it doesn't mean the team will disclose everything to the public  (If everything knows the method, how come the hard-working guys get reward?)

Hope you know what I mean.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 29-1-2007 09:53 AM 編輯 ]

作者: Justinian 時間: 29-1-2007 09:40 AM

引用:

原帖由 real 於 29-1-2007 09:11 AM 發表
Just a joke to wind you up:

What do you mean by 'believe in 仁者無敵'? This is one good phase but how is it applied to horse-punting? Do you hand out money to strangers on the street once you ha ...

Real兄，小弟英文水準不高！請問 "horse-punting" 的中文意思，是否"對賭"？
若是"對賭"，是否與馬會"對賭"？:smile_42:

作者: Forest 時間: 29-1-2007 12:03 PM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 28-1-2007 19:35 發表
問這個問題的原因是, 若我是一個新人, 眼見個個貼也有「閱讀權限」兼有些還要 100, 那我會覺得沒趣. 若小胖兄有這樣的要求, 建議向 Coffee 申請一個私人地方吧. 眼見有好幾個大部份人都睇唔到的貼子, 上來實在有點掃興感覺.

yeah ... agree :33:

所以 ... 就算我夠權限 .... 我都唔想回覆 .... :smile_45:

作者: Forest 時間: 29-1-2007 12:04 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 28-1-2007 21:04 發表

攪掂! hehe

:em22:

不過,睇黎無mud人好似小弟咁crazy...

又要做獨行俠..
:em29:

方向正確 ... 一定都唔 crazy ... keep going man :33:

[ 本帖最後由 Forest 於 29-1-2007 12:06 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 12:14 PM

引用:

原帖由 Forest 於 29-1-2007 12:03 PM 發表

yeah ... agree :33:

所以 ... 就算我夠權限 .... 我都唔想回覆 .... :smile_45:

Already fixed la...

作者: Forest 時間: 29-1-2007 12:19 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 29-1-2007 12:14 發表

Already fixed la...

so I reply lor :smile_48:

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 29-1-2007 08:20 PM

push

still no one?

Come-on, baby!

作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 11:52 PM 標題: Given up la

Far from what I expect. The idea is over. Maybe real sharing is so difficult.

Will go for other approach to look for improvement.

(If anyone is interested, please still pm to me)

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 30-1-2007 12:49 AM

閒來又多事說幾句. 小胖兄的目的實在難明, 你是想與一些尚未成功的朋友一起研究出新的贏馬系統, 還是想改善自己現有投注系統 ? 若是前者, 就好比找一班連甚麼是高等數學也糢查查的人一起學微積分一樣, 目標難達成不只還浪費時間. 若是後者, 還是建議你找個前輩幫幫手來得實際.

見你現有的投注系統計有「mm tips」, 「極度狂熱馬匹」, 「臨場買馬法」及「插班初出基金」. 頭三個完全不知原由無法給予意見. 至於「插班初出基金」, 若單純投注自購馬插班初出已應有不俗成績, 不過是要「等運到」, 就像儲了蓄等提款一樣, 絕非一個進取及長遠的贏錢策略.

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 12:59 AM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 30-1-2007 12:49 AM 發表
閒來又多事說幾句. 小胖兄的目的實在難明, 你是想與一些尚未成功的朋友一起研究出新的贏馬系統, 還是想改善自己現有投注系統 ? 若是前者, 就好比找一班連甚麼是高等數學也糢查查的人一起學微積分一樣, 目標難達成 ...

賭鬼兄,多謝你的見解.
其實小弟發覺自己的開發程序和很多接觸過的人很不一樣.  小弟鍾意比較宏觀的方法, 希望找出一些經得起時間考驗(如不怕練馬師轉手法,轉existing馬房或騎師,易不須倚靠個人判斷的方法), 同可用公式計算結果.  可能小弟EQ低,容易受消息誤導,判斷力低,又比較鍾意計數solve logical problem(對馬反而無mud感覺),所以採用這方向.

小弟覺得研究賽馬的有很多派, 可能在此能找到志同道合者.

另外, 小弟的個人意見認為, share 貼士其實對研究無mud幫助, 可能會有一時利潤, 但不能靠貼士搵食..  環顧周圍, 這種賭博情況比比皆是(唔講馬後砲,賽後post投注記錄搏稱讚).  小弟在此, 不是搵貼士或搏出位, 而是希望對自己的研究找出改善之道(當然易儘量保護知識產權).  本有兩個approach, 一係求教高人, 一係搵同自己類似的朋友合作.  而此post就是後者. (我已拜呢度一D高人為師, 不過turn down 左)

俾人當怪人或俾人鬧, 反而無mud所謂.  正如兄台所指, 忠言逆耳馬.  批評得愈多愈好.

小弟俾p兄批評得最多,所以封左佢做偶像.  佢真係俾左好多有用見解 - 雖然有D好鬼高深唔明同方向唔同.

"你是想與一些尚未成功的朋友一起研究出新的贏馬系統, 還是想改善自己現有投注系統 ? 若是前者, 就好比找一班連甚麼是高等數學也糢查查的人一起學微積分一樣, 目標難達成不只還浪費時間. 若是後者, 還是建議你找個前輩幫幫手來得實際. "
- 一起研究出新的贏馬系統, 還是想改善自己現有投注系統 <--- 改善完咪變新囉, 其實新舊都好,多個人諗應會好D啩
- 好比找一班連甚麼是高等數學也糢查查的人一起學微積分一樣 <--- 未必既,可能有D同小弟同一遭遇or level 呢!  大家個別唔成功 (小弟必認),未必一斉唔得呢!

打到手軟...

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 30-1-2007 01:35 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 01:42 AM

講真, 差D搵到個, 重要work in same field and live in same district. 又believe in scientific method.

But eventually, not crazy enough as me... (too quiet).

收工啦啩..

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 30-1-2007 01:43 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 30-1-2007 01:44 AM

以純靠計數去贏馬的人我也認識不少, 怎會被當怪人或俾人鬧 ? 難明.
任何派別也有其長亦有其短, 能取長補短者, 成功指日可待.
Good Luck.

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 01:46 AM

引用:

原帖由賭鬼於 30-1-2007 01:44 AM 發表
以純靠計數去贏馬的人我也認識不少, 怎會被當怪人或俾人鬧 ? 難明.
任何派別也有其長亦有其短, 能取長補短者, 成功指日可待.
Good Luck.

謝晒
奸巴爹!

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 11:13 AM

不怕練馬師轉手法,轉existing馬房或騎師,易不須倚靠個人判斷的方法

I think it can only be achieved by very good analysis or betting information

as I dont have the knowledge on horse analysis and stable information, I concentrate on betting information.

If you look into winning horse pattern, you may find that large bet amount at last few minutes, in this siutation, only you have good insight can save yourself.

and like the Whyte holding horses cases, good horse information will make yourself losing also. So, betting information is the only way to save you from betting onto this. I believe that this reflect in betting info.

This is a dilemma, and it is the world that we are living in.

Hey bro, I like calculus when I was studying, so you are not alone wor!

[ 本帖最後由 whatchee 於 30-1-2007 11:25 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 12:14 PM

Hi, whatchee brother,
I think what you mean is that bet information and horse/stable information can support each other.  Yes, I agree with that.

The reason that I don't focus on bet system is that some brother said (I forgot who) the insiders always bet on the final minutes.  And stable guys always bet in some pattern that makes you not notice, and may change their method periodically.  You also need a sophistic system to see their pattern like super rucrazy did), and it may not be that quantative.  I don't mean that it's not useful.  I just mean you need great program/maths and careful thinking to help you in odd analysis, and for this, I don't have.

This is the reason that I'm still going for the latter.  As you're working on the former, maybe we can support each other to some extent.

For Whyte case, I believe it shows that you shouldn't bet too HEAVILY on certain race.  But in general, if you find certain formula or logic that can be evenly applied to all races, it can still drives profit.  So, apart from betting information, even/distributed betting can also save us from that (e.g. bet more than 1 horse per race, which I'm always doing).

作者: real 時間: 30-1-2007 03:41 PM

...yeah that was really a joke. It kind of reminded me when my brother-in-law got into the med school at HKU. I said 仁者無敵 to him and wish him to become a good doctor.

Well, that's all history. Since then I had given that name to my son.

Horse-punting? That means betting on horses and win money. I am sorry that I should be typing in Chinese but I did not learn that skill at teenage. Now it is hard to teach an old dog with new trick.

Frankly, I really like your ideas of finding a way or formula to beat the races. Let me share some of my experiences with you here:

Firstly, let me guess your age. You must not be too old because old bats don't use internet. You also must not be too young, young ones would not bet on horses, their concept of studying the form is beyond them. You and me belong to the cyber age. And Cyber age are mostly well-educated.

When I began punting, there were two main schools of thought to beat the races. Some people only studies weight and class and others are 'time' students. Weight&Class were a Aust/english approach while Time was used mainly by Americans. As a young guys with a science/math background, I spent time to study these two on top of my own 2 approaches--'Application of Game Theory in Horseracing' and ' Collapse of Super-position and probability wave function used in Horse Racing'.

The first two were popular among everyone and we discussed a lot at internet forum ( BBS era!). My own two approaches were never got understood because they involved too much maths and theories. Among the two popular topics, the Time students were really crazy; they would study the speed of wind, the hardness of the tracks and who-who could ride 1/100 sec faster.... The Time students would say the class&weught students were not scientific etc etc.....I can tell you now, they are all broke. However, is Time-stydying really useless? The answer is no. Time can e useful if you know how to apply it and factor it. One common observation from anywhere is that good horses can all run good times. But how come the Time students all went broke....?

I then studied the HK races and the focus of most people was on trainers and jockeys, rather than on a horse's ability. All I can say is that, if you are betting on their mind ( go or no-go), you might as well give it up and play lotto. So I never got too involved in those data-mining on Jockey-Trainer stats.....I am not saying they are all wrong but it is just not my cup of tea.

So, keep it up with your studies. You will learn a lot on the way to become a better punter.

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 04:11 PM

引用:

原帖由 real 於 30-1-2007 03:41 PM 發表
...yeah that was really a joke. It kind of reminded me when my brother-in-law got into the med school at HKU. I said 仁者無敵 to him and wish him to become a good doctor.

Well, that's all histor ...

Brother real,

Thanks for your info.  Again, it's very different from others and it makes my crazy idea of opening this topic being worthwhile.

In your message, you mentioned that there were 2 main theories for calculation - Time theory and Weight&Class theory.  All involves very complicated maths.  I know your approach is to use these sophisticated maths to calculate the outcome.  But for me, my actual study is not based on complicated maths, but my focus is to make the main factors under consideration to be quantative - become numbers, and using some simple maths to find their co-relation.  I, as you guess, is so old that I have already returned my maths knowledge to my past teachers.  I just remember simple arithmetics.

On the other hand, I believe that the most important facts should not need using complicated maths to calculate.  If you becomes too fine-tuned, it'll become super data-mining.  In hk, maybe due to the tight competition status, including horses, tracks and tactics, or even may due to bribes,  my believe is that we can only filter out impossible horses + find out all horses that are planned to win and bet on all these possible horses.

Actually, I didn't give up Time, Weight&Class theory.  Maybe I use it in a simple way at the moment - using the speedmap to filter out bad horses.  If I have other findings, I'll go for other factors.  In fact, I didn't go for stable analysis for the past few years.  Only from this year onwards, I start on stable analysis (as it's not that scientific) but the result is, surprising to me, that stable analsysis is worthy and drive winning results.  As mentioned, I believe it's due to the fact that races in hk is very close and heavily rely on tactics once the horses skills are close.

I didn't mean you're wrong (actually I believe you're right, but we may belong to different groups).  I just mean that I'm focussing on "many aspects" instead of "single aspect" and I'm not good enough for complicated maths.  I'm trying to quantify the factors (which is generic) and find any worthy aspect to study on.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 30-1-2007 04:22 PM 編輯 ]

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 04:28 PM

Wow!       ' Collapse of Super-position

I am not maths student, so not heard of it, may REAL show me the road to know more?  I will try search in internet myself
anyway.  if I know these can help in my wallet, I should have studied them in schools.

I believe game theory works, as I study betting information in these few months. patterns are definitely there.

I think horse is the best place to bet to my knowledge so far, as far as you can de-cipher the code in horse racing.

About typing in English, I am an old dog too, just too impatient to type or write in Chinese, it is a big computer joke to me.

After several months of study, I find that horse betting actually similar to  people playing forex, different schools of people use different methods, trying to achieve profit at the same time.  and at the background, some big sharks manipulate information and rate, trying to kill all small fish.

This is a crazy world.

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 04:45 PM

引用:

原帖由 whatchee 於 30-1-2007 04:28 PM 發表
Wow!       ' Collapse of Super-position

I am not maths student, so not heard of it, may REAL show me the road to know more?  I will try search in internet myself
anyway.  if I know these ca ...

Whatchee brother,

Can you tell me what "game theory" is?? Maybe just a brief description.

I like this kind of discussion, not just tips, you know.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 30-1-2007 04:48 PM 編輯 ]

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 05:03 PM

I didnt study game theory , it should be probability and actions to protect significant losses

once, someone is discussing which one is heavier, M16 or AK47 in a chat, and I got the answer,

can you think of the reason?

the answer is : yahoo

that's right, the greatest invention in our lifetime

慢用

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

:smile_15:

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 05:06 PM

one reason that I say there is pattern, see the calculated ratio,
pure calculation, no stable, jockey, horse characteristics...etc

作者: real 時間: 30-1-2007 05:25 PM

Whatchee,

I happen to start liking you ( ie quoted from a Chow Sin Chee TV show).
That 'Collapse of Superposition' etc etc was also meant to be a joke and my wife still makes fun of me till now. Since it is a nice day, I think I will share the background of this.

Not sure if you had heard about a thought experience of putting a cat in the box and there is a poison gas flask in it as well. A hammer is connected to a particular detector and if will break the flasj and kill the cat if the particle spins up or vice versa. Yes the Sch Cat argument. Until we open the box, we would have no knowledge to which the cat is alive or dead, hence the cat is in a super-position , being alive and dead at the same time until the box is opened. Doesn't it sound similar to where a horse is positioned before and after the gate opens??!! Before the starter hits the button, all horses are in 'super-positions' and there locations during the race is best described ( and hence predicted ) by the wave function. I had this similar idea and purposed some wonderful thought ( not on horses, though) to my supervisor as my PH.D. thesis. And the Professor jokingly suggested that I could do that on race-track to save research funding to set it up in the LAB.

No, it has never formed in any sense at all for the horse-punting but the idea sounds cool, doesn't it?

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 06:41 PM

Ha Ha Ha

It reminds me of quantum physics, a particle can be anywhere at the same time, you cannot detect its position and speed at the same time.

so a horse can win or loss at the same time, not until we impose the constrain, i.e. the finish time.

that is why everyone's heart is going up and down, 7 bucket up, 8 bucket down :smile_13:

not until the finish time reached, then all buckets falled to the ground :em36:

Ha Ha, may be we need to apply quantum physics to horse racing other than Biology, physics, probability, game theory, super-position collapse :em25:

It is a good paradox actually, will learn more :33:

作者: real 時間: 30-1-2007 06:46 PM

小胖 ,
Actually, Weight&Class or even Time Theory are not complicated at all.

Firstly, my *Time* experience was that at early 90s, I developed a Time scaled rating myself ( just input the run time and its carried weight of previous races.[ I did not use it at Australia but HK was that HK at that time was racing on sand-meshed grass. *Time* never works on grass but work fine on dirt; sand-mesh grass was grass but being raced like a dirt track.].  I took this piece  of system to HK and won a lot at the beginning ( HK winter ) but then this system started to fell at Spring. Moreover, it only worked on C2 horses and especially horses stabled at Kan Bing Chee. Luckily, I slammed on the brake and stopped because I knew I was sucked into the *Time * trap. I never looked back since and I would suggest everyone be cautious with Time [ ** Being a punter, one should not disclose a secret but I am doing it to avoid more people to jump off their windows**] I only want to win their money, not their lives.
.
Then I went back to the traditional weigh&Class method.... No, it did not work at HK AT ALL because HK used a rating based system. All horses were already scaled up and down by the HKJC handicapper. That was also the time the so-called God of Horse controlled the races.... Since he is dead already, I should not say anything on him but you guys all got it wrong about his ability. While we bet 14 horses per race, he only bet 4 or 5  horses....you know what I mean.

What saved my punting life was David Hayes' arrival to HK. He brought a batch of horses , mostly PPG and started at rating =46 from CLASS 4. It was like throwing a tiger into a group of sheep. But then HKJC changed the system and also hired a new Handicapper.We all had to think of some new methods.

Nowadays, racing is much easier. You might disagree but here are my reasons:

1. troublesome trainers are history. No more silly man--Kan Bing Chee who raced his horses TOO often and only he knew when they were ready and 'go'. No more Hutchison, no more Wong Siu Darn.

2.  troublesome jockeys are also history. Kinane--I only bet his horses while he raced in Europe. no more Steven King, no more Gauci, no more Basil Marcus. Among all, Basil Marcus was the worst.

3. Lots of new PP with exposed oversea form

4 Except TK Ng, nobody waits anymore for better odds.

I think your idea is good. We all improve by sharing info. Nowadays, I write here to exchange my ideas with you guys to polish my punting. I like looking into new angles, too.

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://hrc.hk/)