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標題: 速勢最差之win馬 [打印本頁]

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 29-1-2007 01:12 AM 標題: 速勢最差之win馬

Jan07 :
10 G303 無敵神駒 3 蘇保羅 06_07 1_07 R287 10

Dec06 :
1 5 開心(H070) 薛順強告東尼 120 4 - 1.21.80 99 06_07 12_02 <--- exceptional

Nov06 :
13 E202 五彩繽紛 4 苗禮德 06_07 11_12 R151 13

Oct06 :
9 E135 新力升 4 約翰摩亞 06_07 10_7 R072 9
11 E051 新相知 5 蘇保羅 06_07 10_21 R094 11

From Oct06 ~ Jan07 (last raceday), there's only ONE exceptional case - 開心 case at 2Dec06. So, I think it's still tolerable and this case can be treated as exceptional.

This filtering method will be added to the existing rules to reduce the cost and performance

[ 本帖最後由 wersocrazy 於 29-1-2007 10:37 PM 編輯 ]

作者: katanwillis 時間: 29-1-2007 08:11 AM

what is those number meaning?

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 29-1-2007 08:24 AM

引用:

原帖由 katanwillis 於 29-1-2007 08:11 AM 發表
what is those number meaning?

I'll tidy it up soon. The most important thing is the horse name and the race.

The main purpose is to set the criteria for filtering bad horses, by 速勢.

[ 本帖最後由 wersocrazy 於 29-1-2007 08:28 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 09:43 AM

The reason I post this is that after some years of studying, I found it's rather difficult to find some reliable resources that can filter out bad horses. Followings are some of the very few that I think is still having chances :

- 速勢
- doctor's choice

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 29-1-2007 11:40 AM

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作者: 山埃博士 時間: 29-1-2007 11:44 AM

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作者: 小胖 時間: 29-1-2007 12:12 PM

引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 29-1-2007 11:40 AM 發表

特點：質新馬，唔好信，速勢最大盲點！:smile_38::smile_38::smile_38:

I see... Valuable info, doctor.
Maybe I need to take into account the number of past races.

作者: YIMI 時間: 29-1-2007 09:17 PM

顶下

作者: wersocrazy 時間: 29-1-2007 10:42 PM

根據現有公式,

31Jan07 西馬(win only):
R2 : 4 (有才有勢)
R5 : 6 (大明王),11 (心中有運)
R6 : 10 (駿馬大師)

Rubbish horse (doctor's choice) :
R1 : 2,11,13
R2 : 1,10
R3 : 8,9
R4 : 12
R5 : 11,6
R6 : 10,4,12
R7 :
R8 : 4

[ 本帖最後由 wersocrazy 於 29-1-2007 10:52 PM 編輯 ]

作者: whatchee 時間: 30-1-2007 11:32 AM

I would like to post my dead horse in the morning of racing day, using new found formula,

last racing, one of them turns out to be the first horse, and others all dead.

see how it goes in Happy valley on Wed

作者: 社排2 時間: 30-1-2007 11:49 AM

引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 29-1-2007 11:40 AM 發表

特點：質新馬，唔好信，速勢最大盲點！:smile_38::smile_38::smile_38:

五班马可以考虑~:em37:

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 12:16 PM

引用:

原帖由 whatchee 於 30-1-2007 11:32 AM 發表
I would like to post my dead horse in the morning of racing day, using new found formula,

last racing, one of them turns out to be the first horse, and others all dead.

see how it goes in Hap ...

Bro whatchee,

As past statistics (no. of picks vs no. of misses for this season)? It'll be better to evalulate any rule for more samples.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 30-1-2007 12:18 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 12:28 PM

引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 29-1-2007 11:44 AM 發表
今季垃圾盲點馬......哲學家！:smile_48:

Just one missed, doctor? If yes, then you're superman!!

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 30-1-2007 12:47 PM

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作者: chanda2002 時間: 30-1-2007 08:46 PM

支持下先...............

作者: 小胖 時間: 30-1-2007 11:34 PM

Sep06 :
5 C015 好利高 7 伍碧權 06_07 9_27 R045 5 <--- another exceptional race

作者: 小胖 時間: 2-2-2007 01:09 AM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 29-1-2007 09:43 AM 發表
The reason I post this is that after some years of studying, I found it's rather difficult to find some reliable resources that can filter out bad horses. Followings are some of the very few that ...

3. overnight odd

作者: rucrazy 時間: 2-2-2007 09:54 AM

I think 速勢 is a key to find out which horse might over bet in the race. and which horse have a greater chance even
with a good odds..

especailly when u find out a horse's 速勢 is on the top.. and its a 1st favourite odds.

as I dont think 速勢 is the main key in the horse racing nowsaday if u wanna make profit...

coz the 速勢 point is a public information from hkjc... everyone can get the 速勢 point very easy
via hkjc... so the value of 速勢 is not as useful as when the time 速勢 is just come out.

I do agree dat when some races.. if u think the 1st favourite is overbet, especialy u think dat
horse actually wont have a good chance to win.... and find out some horse's
ranking in the 速勢 is seems better than dat horses. Then it might be a good chance to bet
dat kind of horses...

anyway... I give up studying 速勢 in this season.

作者: 小胖 時間: 2-2-2007 10:16 AM

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 2-2-2007 09:54 AM 發表
I think 速勢 is a key to find out which horse might over bet in the race. and which horse have a greater chance even
with a good odds..

especailly when u find out a horse's 速勢 is on the top ...

Thanks so much for dropping message here.

I also have the same feeling that 速勢 is a calculation that is too public and shared by many persons.  As a result, it's very difficult to pick out the winning horse directly from 速勢 value.

However, I think it's the source of calculation which includes a lot of factors, and is very convenient to anyone that has no time to study deeply or doesn't have solid mathematical background to obtain some quantative values on the horse speed (they don't need to calculate the relative speed on past races, latent speed, racing condition etc).  It's still a very useful value for reference, on quantative aspect.

This season, I use 速勢 not to pick the winning horse, but to eliminate the losing horses.  If some horse has very bad value of 速勢, then I think the horse can be eliminated.

On the other hand, you also point out a very useful point that 速勢 is a good media to CONFIRM your estimation - such as finding a horse is good/bad or worthy.  If you're very confident on a horse but it has very bad 速勢, then you have to be cautious.  On the other hand, if a horse has good 速勢 but has cold odd, then it may be worthwhile to study on it.

I may include this study on my workshop, for race result high 速勢 with high odds.  Or we can bet heavily on high 速勢 with low odds.

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 2-2-2007 10:19 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 2-2-2007 10:03 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 2-2-2007 01:09 AM 發表

3. overnight odd

4. horse status (from hkjc) + distance

作者: 小胖 時間: 2-2-2007 10:29 PM 標題: 4Feb07 西馬

My choice :
R1 : 3,5,8,10,11
R2 : 1,3
R3 : 5,8,12
R4 : 13
R5 : 11
R6 : 4,13
R7 : 10
R8 : 9,11
R9 :
R10 : 4

Doctor's choice :

R2 : 3
R3 : 5,7,8,12,14
R4 : 11
R5 : 11,12
R6 : 8,13
R7 :
R8 : 9,11
R9 : 2
R10 : 2,4,5,10,11

(Doctor, please tell me if you mind me posting your rubbish hrs here. I put it here as it's part of my rules)

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 4-2-2007 09:30 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 6-2-2007 08:31 PM 標題: 7Feb07西馬

My choice :
R1 :
R2 :
R3 : 5,7,12
R4 :
R5 :
R6 :
R7 :
R8 :

doctor's choice :
R1 : 10,11
R2 :
R3 : 5
R4 : 11
R5 : 6,8
R6 : 8
R7 : 11
R8 : 3,11

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 6-2-2007 10:29 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 9-2-2007 09:34 PM 標題: 10Feb07西馬

My choice :
R1 :
R2 : 8,11
R3 : 4
R4 : 1,3,12,13,14
R5 : 2,8,11,14
R6 : 7,10,12,14
R7 : 7
R8 :
R9 :
R10 :

doctor's choice :
R1 : 2,9
R2 : 1,8,12
R3 : 6,13,14
R4 : 3,13
R5 : 2,8,11
R6 : 1,7,10,14
R7 : 1
R8 : 2,14
R9 : 1,9
R10 : 4,6

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 10-2-2007 07:58 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 13-2-2007 08:11 PM 標題: 14Feb07西馬

My choice :
R1 :
R2 : 9
R3 : 1
R4 : 3,9
R5 :
R6 : 4
R7 : 1
R8 : 7

doctor's choice :
R1 : 6,7
R2 :
R3 : 10
R4 : 3,4
R5 : 8,11
R6 : 4
R7 : 1,6,12
R8 : 1

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 14-2-2007 10:58 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 19-2-2007 10:47 PM 標題: 20Feb07西馬

My choice :
R1 : 5,7,9,10,11,12,13
R2 : 6,8,12,14
R3 : 7,8,11
R4 : 6,7,11,14
R5 : 2,5,11,13,14
R6 : 9,11
R7 : 3
R8 : 2,4,6,7,8,9,10,12,14
R9 : 2
R10 : 5,7,12,13,14

doctor's choice :
R1 : 5,10,13
R2 : 9,14
R3 : 8,10
R4 : 1,3,9,11
R5 : 1,7
R6 : 3,4
R7 :
R8 : 7,10
R9 : 2,6
R10 : 9,12

training pattern :
R1 : 9,13
R2 : 2,7,12
R3 :
R4 : 1,3,9
R5 : 1,3,5,6,10
R6 : 1,9,10
R7 : 5,7
R8 : 3,6,11,12
R9 : 4,5,8,9,11
R10 : 5,7

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 20-2-2007 12:21 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 23-2-2007 10:20 PM 標題: 試吓唔靠人

25Feb07西馬 - updating

My choice :
R1 :
R2 : 4
R3 : 1,4,7,9
R4 : 4,7,12
R5 : 7,12,14
R6 : 1,4,6
R7 : 4,9,13,14
R8 : 1
R9 : 11
R10 : 8,13
R11 : 4,9,14

training pattern :
R1 : 2
R2 :
R3 :
R4 : 11
R5 : 12
R6 : 11
R7 :
R8 :
R9 :
R10 :
R11 : 3

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 25-2-2007 10:35 AM 編輯 ]

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-2-2007 07:48 PM

28Feb07西馬 - notice 西win only

Done

My choice :
R1 : 3,8,9
R2 : 8,9
R3 : 1,6,8,11
R4 : 5,9
R5 :
R6 :
R7 : 3,6,7
R8 : 6,9,11

[ 本帖最後由小胖於 28-2-2007 08:26 AM 編輯 ]

作者: coffee 時間: 27-2-2007 07:50 PM

so far how's the success %?

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-2-2007 08:02 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 27-2-2007 07:50 PM 發表
so far how's the success %?

Hi coffee brother,

Can't tell you as it was still under minor consolidation.  But I can tell you that it's 'quite reliable' even so.  For example, on last racing day, there's 0 miss for win.  As I'm working on betting Win, it'll be used to eliminate my hopeless bets.

It's different from doctor's choice.  Each has pros and cons.  On last racing day, doctor's choice is very great (西many horses).  But on previous, that rule 西2 wrong horses (including 1 cold ones) whereas my rule 西1 wrongly.

I believe that my rule is settled down now.  It's confirmed and start to be 'trained'.  But if you ask me how it applies to past data, I can tell you that it must be good as it comes from there.

作者: YIMI 時間: 27-2-2007 08:02 PM

不明

作者: coffee 時間: 27-2-2007 08:08 PM

引用:

原帖由小胖於 27-2-2007 08:02 PM 發表

Hi coffee brother,

Can't tell you as it was still under minor consolidation. But I can tell you that it's 'quite reliable' even so. For example, on last racing day, there's 0 miss for win. ...

thank you for your prompt reply...
i think one or two wrong choices is normal...one just can't predict 100% correct...
if it goes in a long run, the % that fails would be very minor or neglectable.

wish you big success.

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-2-2007 08:48 PM

引用:

原帖由 YIMI 於 27-2-2007 08:02 PM 發表
不明

即係目標係找出無機會win的馬.

ok?

作者: 小胖 時間: 27-2-2007 08:51 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 27-2-2007 08:08 PM 發表

thank you for your prompt reply...
i think one or two wrong choices is normal...one just can't predict 100% correct...
if it goes in a long run, the % that fails would be very minor or neglecta ...

Thanks coffee brother. Just want to share the horses that I'll filter out during my WIN betting.

Hope it can grow in both quantity (i.e. more horses filtered out) and quality (i.e.fewer misses) in the future.

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://hrc.hk/)