賽日密馬 - Powered by Discuz! Board

標題: 驚人發現 [打印本頁]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 03:10 PM 標題: 驚人發現

There is misleading information on Jockey Club's "Speed Power" column. Before the races start, they put the estimates of horse pace for each race ie. whether the race is a slow run or fast run race etc. But I tell you the truth that over 60% of their estimates are incorrect. Don't take them as your reference. Otherwise you will make a mistake to select your target horses. The reason is that you should pick a fast-runner and not a late-finisher to take an advantage of slow run race or vice versa. The wrong information will result in a wrong selection of target races. Beaware. I wil provide my own estimates for you brothers to test my estimates later these two days.

作者: sunnylui 時間: 23-6-2009 06:41 PM

期待我兄提供

作者: y2jwwf 時間: 23-6-2009 07:14 PM

睇唔出！~

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 08:10 PM

I have calculated the horse pace of the races tomorrow night:
Race 1 Fast run Reason: 5 horses compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects 51.8  3 lines below the standard 61.1)

Race 2 Fast run  Reason: 7 horses compete in the 1st section. (1st section time expects 51.9 3 lines below the standard 61.1)

Race 3 Good-to-fast run  Reason 3 horses compete in the 1st sectiont(1st section time expects 47 3 lines below the standard 47.3)

Race 4 Fast run Reason: 4 horses compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects
51.7 3 lines below the standard 52)

Race 5 Slow run Reason no horse compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects
slower than the standard 34.4)

Race 6 Fast run Reason 5 horses compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects
51.7 3 lines below the standard 52)

Race 7 Fast run Reason 4 horses compete in the 1st section(1st section time expects
46.7 3 lines below the standard 47)

Race 8 Fast run  Reason 4 horses compete in the 1st section(1st section time expects
51.6 3 lines below the standard 51.9)

You brothers can check the website of HkJC Speed Power column to see how they grade
the races. Most of their information is different from mine.

作者: whatchee 時間: 23-6-2009 08:38 PM

Paul

can you tell me based on what you forcast the speed?

I know it is confidential, just a rough idea, may be can help others here.

thanks

Jim

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 09:01 PM

From my data accumulated before plus an excel file from horse betting club, which I am one of the members. I paid the subscription fee yearly.

作者: abab888 時間: 23-6-2009 10:11 PM

唔明

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 11:44 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 08:10 PM 發表
I have calculated the horse pace of the races tomorrow night:
Race 1 Fast run Reason: 5 horses compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects 51.8 3 lines below the standard 61.1)

Race 2 ...

真係無留意到，謝謝提醒！

作者: sunnylui 時間: 24-6-2009 12:24 AM

想請問paul兄horse betting club中文叫咩？有無網址？

多謝paul兄先

作者: dane 時間: 24-6-2009 09:01 AM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 08:10 PM 發表

Race 6 Fast run Reason 5 horses compete in the 1st section (1st section time expects
51.7 3 lines below the standard 52) ...

那5匹馬呢? 可否列出, 我都想了解多些

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 24-6-2009 09:28 AM

There is a club which email address is berdonhk@netvigator.com providing a reasonable charge for services given. You can contact them for details. I am only interested in their racecards scheme. For others, they do no pay. You have to calculate
the statistics to find the target horses on your own.

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 24-6-2009 09:46 AM

For horses competing and leading the front, brothers can cross-check HKJC Speed Power column, you may get a rough idea which horses are leading the front. But don't make a mistake that horses leading the front are target horses. They are horses making
the run to be a fast run or good-to-fast run. You need to estimate the finishing time of each horse to decide your target horse and evaluate if it is a late-finisher which can take an advantage of a fast run race. Compari ng the ability of each horse in the same distances in the current race is most important. That's why I have my own horse
selection system differing from others.

作者: sunnylui 時間: 24-6-2009 02:07 PM

多谢paul兄先

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 12:07 AM

Let me give you brothers my estimate of horse pace to-night with that shown in HKJC
Speed Power column

Race My Estimate       HKJC Estimate    Actual
1          Fast                      Good (Normal)    52.05 for 1st section, 0.05 faster than
                                                                              standard, 76.83 for 1st and 2nd section,
                                                                              0.27 faster than  standard.  Result: Fast
2          Fast                      Good (Normal)    51.3 for 1st section, 0.9 faster than standard,
                                                                              76.11 for 1st and 2nd section, 0.99 faster
                                                                              than standard Result: Fast
3       Good-to-fast       Good (Normal)    46.44 for 1st section, 0.86 faster than
                                                                              standard Result: Fast
4.    Fast                               Slow                      51.78 for 1st section, 0.22 faster than
                                                                           standard, 76.69 for 1st and 2nd section,
                                                                              0.21 faster than standard. Result: Good-to
                                                                              fast
5 Slow                               Fast                      33.89 for 1st section, 0.51 faster than
                                                                              standard Result: Fast

6 Fast                               Good (Normal) 51.47 for 1st section, 0.53 faster than
                                                                           standard, 76.56 for 1st and 2nd section
                                                                           0.34 faster than standard Result: Fast
7  Fast                               Fast                      46.09 for 1st section, 0.91 faster than
                                                                           standard  Result: Fast
8  Fast                               Normal                   51.92 for 1st section, 0.02 slower than
                                                                           standard, 76.54 for 1st and 2nd section,
                                                                           0.26 faster than standard. Result: Fast

From the above, you can see HKJC Speed Power column estimated wrongly 6 races
namely, Race 1, 2, 3, 4, 6  and 8. I only made minor mistakes for Race 3 and 4. Still I guessed the races to be faster, anyway.  I only estimated wrongly Race 5 which is a
short distance race, the pace of which is usually good-to-fast or good. We should
judge on our own even without records on our own.  Conclusion: Don't rely on HKJC's
wrong information.  You will save a lot of mistaken betting!!

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 25-6-2009 12:57 AM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 12:07 AM 發表
Let me give you brothers my estimate of horse pace to-night with that shown in HKJC
Speed Power column

Race My Estimate HKJC Estimate Actual
1 Fast ...

果然精彩，期待再能為大家分析！

作者: sunnylui 時間: 25-6-2009 09:27 AM

厉害！好有用

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://hrc.hk/)