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標題: 從谷草1650找尋超級馬 [打印本頁]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 7-7-2009 08:03 PM 標題: 從谷草1650找尋超級馬

If a horse can achieve the speed of the last two sections (400M each) equal or faster than 48.0 in 1650M Happy Valley, she can be classifed as a super horse.

Action: Can any brother help to find those super horses in all 1650M races?

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 12:05 AM

under horse nos
48 173
47.5 43

47 9

總場次場地跑道班次路程名次馬號 Pacing 馬名
69 快活谷草地 2 1650 1 10 2 駕進 46.96
183 快活谷草地 4 1650 3 1 8 高高的 46.94
183 快活谷草地 4 1650 6 8 11 飛躍星河 46.78
207 快活谷草地 2 1650 6 6 10 智勇 46.86
525 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 1 4 笑談中 46.89
525 快活谷草地 3 1650 6 8 8 天下寶 46.91
525 快活谷草地 3 1650 9 12 10 又贏晒 46.97
525 快活谷草地 3 1650 10 4 12 浦紅之友 46.82
628 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 2 6 勇猛神駒 46.89

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 8-7-2009 10:20 AM

The information is very good. Thank you, Doctor. In order to select the best of the best, we
have to  sort out  those selected  horses with the last 400M speed equal to or faster than
23.5. I know there is quite a huge number of horses meeting the requirement as follows:
under       horse nos
48       173
47.5       43
47       9

However, we can sort out again those horses from  225 horses with the last 400M speed equal to or faster than 48, I guess the total number will be reduced. Can, brother try again?

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 11:08 AM

總場次場地跑道班次路程名次馬號 Pacing 馬名時間 < 48 < 23
69 快活谷草地 2 1650 1 10 2 駕進 1.40.22 46.96 22.68
69 快活谷草地 2 1650 4 8 5 笑談中 1.40.68 47.34 22.9
69 快活谷草地 2 1650 5 6 7 龍的風采 1.40.95 47.13 22.65
104 快活谷草地 1 1650 2 11 1 鐵拳 1.41.83 47.63 22.15
104 快活谷草地 1 1650 1 7 3 秘密行動 1.41.75 47.39 22.07
104 快活谷草地 1 1650 3 2 5 衝鋒槍 1.41.96 47.2 21.8
207 快活谷草地 2 1650 4 4 8 龍的風采 1.40.60 47.05 22.98
207 快活谷草地 2 1650 6 6 10 智勇 1.40.69 46.86 22.79
224 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 5 6 星際雄師 1.41.77 47.67 22.75
243 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 3 7 獲利多 1.40.96 47.95 22.76
326 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 9 9 和諧大使 1.41.18 47.17 22.92
328 快活谷草地 2 1650 4 11 8 奇異之星 1.41.15 47.92 22.87
328 快活谷草地 2 1650 3 1 10 秘密行動 1.41.14 47.59 22.58
420 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 6 7 勇猛神駒 1.41.23 47.88 22.68
460 快活谷草地 1 1650 2 11 2 財到得勝 1.40.47 47.66 22.74
460 快活谷草地 1 1650 1 1 7 衝鋒槍 1.40.40 47.19 22.47
460 快活谷草地 1 1650 4 8 10 白玉駿駒 1.40.92 47.83 22.91
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 5 2 萬事喜 1.41.56 47.91 22.98
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 5 10 7 同心同德 1.41.76 47.83 22.98
520 快活谷草地 4 1650 6 10 8 神箭金剛 1.41.95 47.41 22.95
554 快活谷草地 3 1650 9 9 11 同心同德 1.41.42 47.44 22.77
591 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 7 1 世界波 1.40.08 47.42 22.76
593 快活谷草地 1 1650 3 8 8 財到得勝 1.40.21 47.43 22.81
628 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 2 6 勇猛神駒 1.40.63 46.89 22.85
629 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 7 6 天祿 1.40.99 47.87 22.63
680 快活谷草地 4 1650 2 2 6 好德煌 1.40.77 47.69 22.84
711 快活谷草地 2 1650 1 8 3 國中之星 1.39.99 47.59 22.89
711 快活谷草地 2 1650 2 7 6 白玉駿駒 1.40.04 47.24 22.66
711 快活谷草地 2 1650 7 3 8 福喜 1.40.37 47.13 22.47
711 快活谷草地 2 1650 8 10 9 紅跑車 1.40.40 47.12 22.86

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 11:09 AM

3,4班

總場次場地跑道班次路程名次馬號 Pacing 馬名時間 < 48 < 23
224 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 5 6 星際雄師 1.41.77 47.67 22.75
243 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 3 7 獲利多 1.40.96 47.95 22.76
326 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 9 9 和諧大使 1.41.18 47.17 22.92
420 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 6 7 勇猛神駒 1.41.23 47.88 22.68
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 5 2 萬事喜 1.41.56 47.91 22.98
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 5 10 7 同心同德 1.41.76 47.83 22.98
520 快活谷草地 4 1650 6 10 8 神箭金剛 1.41.95 47.41 22.95
554 快活谷草地 3 1650 9 9 11 同心同德 1.41.42 47.44 22.77
591 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 7 1 世界波 1.40.08 47.42 22.76
628 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 2 6 勇猛神駒 1.40.63 46.89 22.85
629 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 7 6 天祿 1.40.99 47.87 22.63
680 快活谷草地 4 1650 2 2 6 好德煌 1.40.77 47.69 22.84

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 8-7-2009 11:25 AM

From my first glance, Doctor, you have done a very good job. Those selected horses are our
target horses showing adequate strength to compete in same 1650M distance in future. If you want to sort the best of the best, you can compare her finishing time and the last 400M
speed in her class with the best finishing time and the best last 400M time in the same
class, then, you will find what we call the bank horse (super horse). We have to understand that in each class and each distance, the best finishing time and the best last 400M are
different. We have to compare apple to apple.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 11:46 AM

看清楚，有幾場係所謂'keyrace'

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 8-7-2009 11:55 AM

Exactly, we must use the yardstick to ascertain the ability of a horse. Action: can any
volunteer brother publish the best finishing time and the best last 400M speed in 1650M
Happy Valley in respective class for performance apprasial purposes?

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 11:57 AM

看看博士pacing給予評分

總場次場地跑道班次路程名次馬號 Pacing 馬名
63 沙田草地 4 1400 6 2 2 同心同德
106 沙田草地 4 1400 2 3 2 同心同德
167 快活谷草地 4 1650 1 2 4 同心同德 4.5Win
263 沙田草地 3 1600 14 10 14 同心同德
459 快活谷草地 3 1650 10 8 12 同心同德
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 5 10 7 同心同德
554 快活谷草地 3 1650 9 9 11 同心同德
620 沙田草地 3 1800 3 11 3 同心同德
653 沙田草地 3 2000 1 10 3 同心同德 32倍Win

[ 本帖最後由山埃博士於 8-7-2009 12:02 PM 編輯 ]

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 01:14 PM

459 快活谷草地 3 1650 4 7 1 萬事喜
507 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 5 2 萬事喜
536 沙田草地 3 1600 7 7 6 萬事喜
591 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 4 2 萬事喜
665 快活谷草地 3 1650 4 7 3 萬事喜

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 8-7-2009 01:16 PM

591 快活谷草地 3 1650 1 7 1 世界波
629 快活谷草地 3 1650 2 4 2 世界波
681 快活谷草地 3 1800 1 1 3 世界波

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 10-7-2009 12:13 AM

For comparsion and yardstick  purposes, I list the best finishing time and the best last 400M speed of the last season:
                        Best Finishing Time             Last 400M Speed*
Class 1          1.40.2                                     22.81
Class  2          1.39.6                                     23.41
Class 3          1.40                                        23.52
Class 4             1.39.9                                     23.38
Class 5             1.40.8                                     23.19

* The last 400M speed acheived in that race  which the  horse gave his best finishing time.

                     Best 400M Speed                Finishing Time**
Class 1          21.8                                     1.42.0
Class 2          22.58                                     1.41.1
Class 3          22.56                                     1.42.4
Class 4          22.25                                     1.42.3
Class 5             22.67                                  1.44.1

** Finishing time acheived in that race which she gave the best 400M speed.

With my chart, you will readily know if the horse considered is a target horse or not. For
example, if you find a horse  in a race A, which speed in that class, say class 3  is faster than 1.40.0, you know she breaks the record of the last season's fastest finishing time. In a next race B, if  she competes in 1650M again, of course she stands a good chance to
get a place or win.  If an additional supporting evidence shows  her last 400M speed in that
race A closer  to the last season's best  last 400M  speed in that class i.e. 22.56 at the same time, you are confident that she wins almost for sure in the next race B. I put money in your brothers'  pockets!!

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 10-7-2009 02:18 AM

Have you prove your findings by using 2007 -2008 season data on 2008 - 2009 season result, or even earlier ?

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 10-7-2009 09:30 AM

We compare season by season. No need to take into account the season's data before the last season's data. Mine is based on 08-09 horse season. You will be misled by the seasons' data if you considert it at the same time. New horses come in and old horses
go out every year.

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 10-7-2009 03:57 PM

I see your point, just let's take a look on 1650 from 2007 -2008 season data, class 3 best finish time was 1.39.2 while class 4 best finish time was 1.39.6. i.e. no horse in last season can acheive these finish time.

作者: cycchow 時間: 10-7-2009 06:57 PM

look at this, may be can inspire you something, my calculation is not always good in predict, but i feel that it is not bad already, there is something can improve

http://www.ma288.com/gogohorse/w ... p;raceDate=20090610

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 10-7-2009 07:59 PM

Yes, you are right. There is no horse in the last seasons that can break the best finishing time of 1650M Happy Valley in Class 3 and 4 in 07/08 season.  It is not strange. Reason:
the old record time in both cases might be due the exceptional fast track or the track of
the last season cannot provide an advantageous conditions for the horses to acheive
the best finishing time better than those in 07/08 season.  Hence, you can see even in
Class 1 in the last season, the best finishing time is slower than same in Class 2 and Class 3. You know why?  There are two reasons. A horse acheived  the best finishing time in Class 1 has the comparatively the fastest last 400M i.e. 22.81 in all classes ranked.
Secondly,  there is no strong opponent in Class 1 to stimulate the best finishing time
horse to run faster.  Question:  How can we know the horse is our target horse when
evaluating  in Class 1 race?  It is simple.  All you have to do to find a horse who
runs faster than 1.39.6 (the fastest finishing time in all classes) with the corresponding last 400 speed close to 21.8 (the fastest last 400M in all classes)  Get it?

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 10-7-2009 08:03 PM

cycchow, forget that website. To me, they are meaningless.

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 10-7-2009 08:41 PM

萬事喜,福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their  last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M speed equal or faster than 23.0
2. their  first 3 sections time is equal to and faster than 76.6 (a fast pac run), still they all
can have strength to finish the last 400M by just losing the race  within 2 horse
lengths (Condition 2 is another angle to dig out the bank horse apart from condition 1)

作者: 賭鬼 時間: 10-7-2009 10:26 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 10-7-2009 08:41 PM 發表
萬事喜,福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M s ...

萬事喜已退役.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 11-7-2009 12:13 AM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 10-7-2009 08:41 PM 發表
萬事喜,福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M s ...

博士同意：福喜，國中之星看來找到最佳出路谷草1650，
不過二班1650上季約得6場，6次機會Win，就算超級要各贏兩Win有d難度。

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 11-7-2009 12:24 AM

呢幾隻潛質好d
天祿
紅孖寶
消費王
超歡騰
新意思

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 11-7-2009 01:55 AM

Correction:

福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M speed equal or faster than 23.0
2. their first 3 sections time is equal to and faster than 76 (not 76.6)(a fast pace run), still they all can have strength to finish the last 400M by just losing the race within 2 horse
lengths (Condition 2 is another angle to dig out the bank horse apart from condition 1)

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