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標題: 真不明白，請大家俾吓意見 [打印本頁]

作者: coffee 時間: 22-10-2005 07:06 PM 標題: 真不明白，請大家俾吓意見

必殺技和必殺秒數入圍率保持34%, 即三隻有一隻中，但仍難贏錢。
一定是買法有問題。我相信就算熱門都有利可圖。怎樣才可穩嬴呢？
請大家俾吓意見。

作者: omike 時間: 22-10-2005 10:13 PM

let's make the case a bit simple first, if you only bet on win
if 1/3 chance to win, it means every horse with odd 3 you will break even.

but i think what you mean by 1/3 chance is the horse getting in the place
it means when the horse pay you $30 will let you breakeven

so, i will suggest you consider the odds for win AND place together:
say a horse's win odd is 3 and place odd is 1.6
you bet $100 for each pool
the best case, it wins, you get:
$300 for win and $160 for place, net profit = $260
so the total odd for your horse is 2.6 only
even if it win you still lose in long run, if it run in place you lose more, of course it is worst if it cannot even get into place

so, i suggest, if you keep your bet pattern W and P, you must consider the odd for both W and P, you ONLY bet if the odd is greater than 3

作者: myth 時間: 22-10-2005 10:36 PM

引用:

Originally posted by omike at 22-10-2005 22:13:
let's make the case a bit simple first, if you only bet on win
if 1/3 chance to win, it means every horse with odd 3 you will break even.

but i think what you mean by 1/3 chance is the horse ge ...

according to ur information and calculation, the odd is 2.3, not 2.6
ur principle is $200 (w & P @ 100 ), the return is $460, so the odd of this horse is 460/200, so it should be 2.3

Sorry ! I just want to point out.

作者: 好運贏家 時間: 22-10-2005 10:52 PM

買法有問題?... I want to know how you distribue your bet fund?

作者: airwai 時間: 22-10-2005 10:58 PM

問題係太太太過集中東厩 & 蔡厩既馬了
你想好分都難!

而且選馬只用操練黎作定論,不加入其他因素,如報名,手影,成長度等等
咁好難的

你一次過咁多馬平注賭,如果東蔡生性你就有錢贏姐,冇你就輸左直

作者: 篠野堅 時間: 22-10-2005 11:44 PM

仲有, 相信馬房自己出得必殺技和必殺秒數的話多數好有信心博........咁應該有唔少內幕同消息飛.....

如之前阿蔡自己都試過買曬自己d 馬中過一次six-up......咁睇平時佢都有買下自己d 馬

作者: omike 時間: 22-10-2005 11:57 PM

引用:

Originally posted by myth at 22-10-2005 10:36 PM:

according to ur information and calculation, the odd is 2.3, not 2.6
ur principle is $200 (w & P @ 100 ), the return is $460, so the odd of this horse is 460/200, so it should be 2.3

...

i may not be good to express myself, also there is calculation error, my apology
what i mean is, if coffee keep on betting odds (W+P) over 4 WITH his hit rate over 34%, he will have profit

example:
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400
odd 4.2 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400 (total -800)
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, win = +820 (total profit = 20)

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 23-10-2005 02:08 AM

以我所知，職業睹徒是不買P的，只主力買W。一個是"馬神"的前拍檔團，一個是大戶。我與他們絕不熟絡，不過他們沒有需要講大話。

從搏彩上，買P怎樣蝕底之前已談論過。不能忽視值搏率啊！

作者: coffee 時間: 23-10-2005 10:50 AM

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 2005-10-23 02:08 AM:
以我所知，職業睹徒是不買P的，只主力買W。一個是"馬神"的前拍檔團，一個是大戶。我與他們絕不熟絡，不過他們沒有需要講大話。

從搏彩上，買P怎樣蝕底之前已談論過。不能忽視值搏率啊！

Thank you very much, phantom!! But how they determine their 注碼?

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 23-10-2005 12:38 PM

"馬神Partner: 怎樣分配注碼不太清楚。他們自有一套計算方法，厘定值搏率。值搏便買W。如果兩匹馬都值搏怎辦？我真的不知。

大戶是騎師的老細，騎師搏馬就會通知老細。跑P無錢收的。咁你明白點解W對騎練咁重要啦！

總之，他們就有一個明顯的共通點：不買P。

其實，投注方法必須依據你的命中率及回報率來厘定。34%的P命中率+回報率~2倍(除本)是不俗，但非絕對優勢。不過咁，從你的紀錄可見你的冷P成績不俗，可以諗下加以利用。點利用你自度啦。我諗到，講比你聽都冇用。馬迷就是最講ego的一群。唔算自己o既o野，中到都冇終極快樂。

何況，我諗唔到:cool:

作者: sammy999 時間: 23-10-2005 11:27 PM

表面上位置是最穩健的彩池
但在馬神眼中,它是使人產生不少誤會
以為易中,其實派彩少,風險亦不少

作者: cmleeeeeee 時間: 24-10-2005 12:40 AM

引用:

Originally posted by coffee at 22-10-2005 07:06 PM:
必殺技和必殺秒數入圍率保持34%, 即三隻有一隻中，但仍難贏錢。
一定是買法有問題。我相信就算熱門都有利可圖。怎樣才可穩嬴呢？
請大家俾吓意見。

coffe 兄
         我認為贏錢的秘缺並不在於揀馬的方法,必殺技和必殺秒數只可滿足你對賽馬的興趣,並不可以幫你贏錢.老實講,34%入圍率只是一般水準,我不用研究隨時都找到超過30%的入圍率,例如:泥地1650,二檔入圍率都有30幾%,谷草1200,二檔入圍率接近50%.
         我並不是discourage你,我只想指出一點,懂得揀馬並不是嬴錢的秘缺.嬴錢的秘缺在於有策略地投資,以下提供一方案供大家研究:目標彩金投注法
方法如下:
         (賠率-1)X投注金額=目標彩金
假如你定下每一W要有彩金1000元,而該馬賠率是6倍:
            (6-1)X投注金額=1000
            因此,投注金額=1000/5=200
若該場lose,下一場的投注金額是:
            (賠率-1)X投注金額=1000+200
如此類推,一旦中了,又回到起初的方法,你揀中的每一W可幫你贏1000元,若一季揀中20W,你便有2萬元進脹,非常可觀的收入.

作者: delilama 時間: 24-10-2005 01:43 AM

引用:

Originally posted by cmleeeeeee at 24-10-2005 12:40 AM:

coffe 兄
我認為贏錢的秘缺並不在於揀馬的方法,必殺技和必殺秒數只可滿足你對賽馬的興趣,並不可以幫你贏錢.老實講,34%入圍率只是一般水準,我不用研究隨時都找到超過30%的入圍率,例如:泥地1650,二檔 ...

Agreed ,It's same logic when you go to Macau Casino, But they will stop you while they discover u using this method.

100 Bet lose = next 200
200 Bet lose = next 400
400 Bet lose = next 800
....
....

But remember Big/Small only 1:2 ratio return.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-10-2005 11:53 AM

引用:

Originally posted by cmleeeeeee at 24-10-2005 12:40 AM:

coffe 兄
我認為贏錢的秘缺並不在於揀馬的方法,必殺技和必殺秒數只可滿足你對賽馬的興趣,並不可以幫你贏錢.老實講,34%入圍率只是一般水準,我不用研究隨時都找到超過30%的入圍率,例如:泥地1650,二檔 ...

I use the exact method.

Most of my friends, especially whose major are math related, also say that this method does not work and give the Macau casino example. In Macau, the odds is 1 only (not 2. we have to deduct the bet from the odds.), we have to use a lot of asset for a tiny return. However, for horse racing, the return is much higher than 1. Of course, the chance of win is lower than 50%. The most important thing is to raise the winning %; meanwhile, we dont bet the horse lower than the reasonable odds.

I have bet horse for 15 years. In the first few years, it was easy to win when I just did not bet any on Tony Cruz horses. And, I sometimes catched some really cold horses. However, I lost in 2002 and 2003. I thought I must do something wrong on the betting method. Then, I came up the same idea as cm said last year and won HKD15,000 with HKD20,000 asset in 6 months. The total betting amount is around HKD120,000 in those 6 months. Well, the result was not good. Anyway, won some and gained some confidence back.

This year I raise my asset to HKD30,000. Now total bet is HKD43,000, profit is HKD23,000. I dont intend to show up. Truely, I just want to point out, aAfter a rough estimation, if I dont use that method, my balance is about break even at this moment. We have to know 20% is gone for tax, and around 5% is gone for pro, trainers and jockeys. We have 75% of the pool only. If we dont use the scientific method to overcome the 25%, it is soooo difficult to win.

In fact, I know the same kind of this method years ago. Due to ego, I refused. However, when the other guy keep winning over HKD100,000 for seasons (he is the fd of my fd only.) and does not spend any time on reviewing horses (he follows the tips of a newspaper only. haha), I believe the betting method works.

How about if all people use this method? Well, find the new strategy. If unable to win, just leave. That's it. That's life. I dont find any fun when I am losing :).

good luck.

作者: teatea 時間: 24-10-2005 01:05 PM

引用:

Originally posted by delilama at 24-10-2005 01:43 AM:

Agreed ,It's same logic when you go to Macau Casino, But they will stop you while they discover u using this method.

100 Bet lose = next 200
200 Bet lose = next 400
400 Bet lose = next 800 ...

Sometimes i used this method in Macau to play... no problem at all..

作者: coffee 時間: 24-10-2005 02:11 PM

thank you everybody. Too many things to digest and will give you guys feedback after work today. I think it's better for me to write in Chinese for better communication. But that will have to wait until I am back home with my writing pal.

Thanks again for all your kind support and infomation!!

作者: coffee 時間: 24-10-2005 06:50 PM

In fact, I used the same method years ago to bet on whyte horses.
The fact is..if you have a big sum of money, it is always work.
can I use it in Place with $20 dividend or more? It sounds easier.

作者: coffee 時間: 24-10-2005 06:54 PM

if I bet 10 races consecutively and it loses, the capital I put will be enormous.....
What horses would you pick phantom? You choose it yourself or you base on a certain jockey?

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-10-2005 09:15 PM

引用:

Originally posted by coffee at 24-10-2005 06:54 PM:
if I bet 10 races consecutively and it loses, the capital I put will be enormous.....
What horses would you pick phantom? You choose it yourself or you base on a certain jockey?

First of all, thank you for trusting my words ;)

In fact, the above mentioned betting way really works. My fd did win over 1M by HKD30,000 asset by betting on Macus. Too bad, he had so much money at that moment and dreamed too much. Finally lost all the asset is kind of stupid. If I were him, I withdrew HKD500,000 first for sure win la. (The 1M guy and HKD100,000 guy are different people. In fact, the 1M guy is a member of a group only. He won around HKD330,000.)

Go back to horse picking.

On the marco side, I pick the horse by HISTORY. I dont mean the horse past record; I mean the trend of the racing history. I will further determine below.

On the micro side, I pick horse from the video. Generally I spend 10~20 hours weekly on reviewing video + photo. It is complicated to tell you how I estimate as different races have different conditions. I have so many rules to judge the horses' performance. Perhaps, as a Chess lover, I know there is no golden step/opening to win. Racing is interactive, it is impossible to find an absolute way to win. Because 變幻才是永恆。

Macro findings:
公眾大熱，買多數杰
泛指那些被一致學看好的大熱門。值持搏率嚴重偏低。
當中，尤其是"計出來"的大熱門最不穩。剛剛，"齊齊贏"就是個很好的例子。另外，一些已跑了十多場，里程已盡的澳紐四班馬，尤其是上仗於四十多分勝出那些，常常輸死人。原因很簡單：得的話，頭十戰內早升上三班了。平常的馬，一生能贏三場已很好。一匹中駟，要連續交出好水準的機會太低，又不值搏，長買就是必敗。長勝方法？根本沒有。但不正視值搏率的話，勝算低矣。

銀行馬

都是那一句：香港商賽事成熟，匹馬多次成為熱門亦必有看好的原因。可是，跑馬不同人跑。今天負126lb.跑1200M做1:10:00，不代表明天都一樣。需知對手實力較高時，要取得好位就更難，需付出更多元氣。因此，很多馬匹，尤其是中班馬，水準飄忽才是正常。看好的馬熱過幾次釘蓋後就會嚇走捧場客，但爭勝能力不變呢！值搏率高了。別人存錢我提款，這便是銀行馬了。\r

兩場半馬

一般來說，一匹PPG能擠身二班的話，一生頭兩仗多能入Q。然而，馬匹表現與賠率掛勾。若然頭兩場當中其中一仗賠率超過40倍的話，我會只當馬兒跑了半場。所以，若一匹PPG能在首兩場半內入Q，則推斷有二班潛力。當然不是每匹二班PPG在都是兩場半內馬。不過，暫時來說，以這方法選馬，命中率及回報率不俗。

提醒一下，個別馬房較慢熱，此法行不通。那個馬房？自己做功課吧。\r

I will disclose my selections. Then you can see my way which is totally different from yours. However, it doesnt mean I am better than you. Different ways can win if your winning chance% and return are reasonable.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-10-2005 09:35 PM

前事不忘，後事之師。知己知彼，百戰百勝。馬事即世事，世事如棋。棋有道，道有數。明數者，未是勝，只是窺道。不明數者，易脆敗，等運到矣！求神拜佛望天打掛怨天尤人不可取；敢愛敢做自強不息樂天知數快活人。

突然有感而發姐。

這個九月真順。知己，在投注策略上，仍有進步空間，可以再贏盡一些。知彼，在選馬方法上，也嘗試算得精細些。可是，欠缺精細的運算和統計方法，只增加了每場可選擇馬匹數目，卻不能同步地評估出精確的值搏率，未必有益。故在知己方面做多點功夫。\r

I do not intend to discourage you. But those words were written a month ago as an introduction of my Sept review (My readers are my real fds who started to bet horses a few years ago). Hope it is a positive message for you :)

And, have to remind you it is impossible to win by betting 4xP in a single race. Place positions are limited. One of your picks get a P, it means the other horses have 2 positions to get the P! Thus, suggest you to bet 4x6QP. Anyway, get 1 P no profit. Get 2 P tiny profit. Why not go for QP or even Q?

作者: GR上杉圭 時間: 24-10-2005 09:46 PM

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 24-10-2005 21:35:
前事不忘，後事之師。知己知彼，百戰百勝。馬事即世事，世事如棋。棋有道，道有數。明數者，未是勝，只是窺道。不明數者，易脆敗，等運到矣！求神拜佛望天打掛怨天尤人不可取；敢愛敢做自強不息樂天知數快活人。
...

非常多謝你o既意見~
使我獲益良多~
定必致力研究投注策略~
再在選馬上下功夫~
感謝......

作者: coffee 時間: 25-10-2005 12:17 PM

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 2005-10-24 09:15 PM:

First of all, thank you for trusting my words ;)

In fact, the above mentioned betting way really works. My fd did win over 1M by HKD30,000 asset by betting on Macus. Too bad, he had so much ...

多謝phantom精采的演譯，完全清楚明白你的想和做法。
對我有不少Inspiration。我相信你的投注法可以用得着於馬房基金。
我認選馬是各施各法，每人的專長和興趣都不同嘛。
小弟和Marshal正努力檢討選馬方式和收集數據。我預期11月可將命中率由現在34%提高至45%，到11月尾再作evaluation. 現在的1W3P平注方法已prove了很低的成功率，但我也會再繼續至11月。介時會全面收改策略，12月或一月正式加大注碼，全面出擊。
儲多一個月Data至大概350隻就可有更可靠數據。
phantom，若不介意，可否post或pm我你今季所選馬匹夾一夾看看會否有驚喜。

One more time, thank you so much for your fruitful sharings and kind support. I think kind of discussion can make us improve our view on horseracing and brush up to be a more wise gambler.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 25-10-2005 12:34 PM

I review on a monthly basis.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 25-10-2005 12:45 PM

I focus on how I win. Of course, do keep all betting records and also study my losing pattern. However, they are hard copies.

And you can see, I win mainly from big jockeys and big stables. It fits the actual situation. Money game, richie win poor. Big "shrimp" small, the fact!

作者: admin 時間: 26-10-2005 12:44 AM

Totally agree : "Money game, richie win poor" ...I've learned much from u... Thanks !!

作者: fvvfvv 時間: 26-10-2005 12:10 PM

買p雖然唔底.但交易中.又各馬房上名率差唔得太多.所以不如買重d有賠率而你又有把握中ge馬房試下啦......放棄d無賠率ge馬房.....以上是講p........win就唔可以咁做

作者: cmleeeeeee 時間: 26-10-2005 04:57 PM

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 25-10-2005 12:34 PM:
I review on a monthly basis.

thank for your sharing,I am totally agreed with you on your way of thinking and method of betting.you are a wise investor not a gambler.Actually, I am interested on your attached file,could you please show me the way to download it or email me through po9653@sinaman.com

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-10-2005 05:37 PM

引用:

Originally posted by cmleeeeeee at 26-10-2005 04:57 PM:

thank for your sharing,I am totally agreed with you on your way of thinking and method of betting.you are a wise investor not a gambler.Actually, I am interested on your attached file,could you p ...

Click "Betting analysis" ok la.. then u will download.

作者: cmleeeeeee 時間: 26-10-2005 05:48 PM

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 26-10-2005 05:37 PM:

Click "Betting analysis" ok la.. then u will download.

I have tried right and left clicks, it goes to a new page saying對不起，請不要從外部鏈接下載本論壇的附件。
What's that mean?

作者: admin 時間: 26-10-2005 08:20 PM

I've checked it for you and you can download it just by simply left click on the file "betting analysis.xls" and a dialogue box will appear and what you need to do is to click save then you can save your file in your computer. Please try.

作者: cmleeeeeee 時間: 27-10-2005 01:33 AM

引用:

Originally posted by admin at 26-10-2005 08:20 PM:
I've checked it for you and you can download it just by simply left click on the file "betting analysis.xls" and a dialogue box will appear and what you need to do is to click save then y ...

I have tried several times but still unsuccessful,forget about it. Anyway, thank you very much.

作者: admin 時間: 27-10-2005 08:17 PM

We have updated the software's version and see whether you can save the file now.

作者: cmleeeeeee 時間: 28-10-2005 12:43 AM

引用:

原帖由 admin 於 27-10-2005 08:17 PM 發表
We have updated the software's version and see whether you can save the file now.

thank you very much,I have already got one from phontom.

作者: dane 時間: 30-10-2005 11:25 PM

今季三甲馬隔晚賠率範圍統計

作者: booking 時間: 31-10-2005 02:58 AM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 24-10-2005 09:35 PM 發表
前事不忘，後事之師。知己知彼，百戰百勝。馬事即世事，世事如棋。棋有道，道有數。明數者，未是勝，只是窺道。不明數者，易脆敗，等運到矣！求神拜佛望天打掛怨天尤人不可取；敢愛敢做自強不息樂天知數快活人。
...

Thx! That's inspired me a lot.

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://hrc.hk/)