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標題: Derby Day Race 4 [打印本頁]

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-3-2006 06:34 PM 標題: Derby Day Race 4

第四場形勢相當單純：加得勁，大富之星，金星互片。

今季A跑道(沙田+快活谷)小弟常敗。都係最多買三場算了。

作者: coffee 時間: 24-3-2006 06:47 PM

引用:

信任科學:
p = 0.825/值搏賠率
D = 賠率
E = p*(D + 1) - 1
Bet whenever E is positive

Fraction (F) = 0.2 (temporary setting at this moment)

C = 一季資本

betting amount:
C*F*E/(D-1)

值搏賠率点計?

作者: Lee-Hom 時間: 24-3-2006 06:48 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 24-3-2006 06:34 PM 發表
第四場形勢相當單純：加得勁，大富之星，金星互片。

今季A跑道(沙田+快活谷)小弟常敗。都係最多買三場算了。

one more 超級神駒

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-3-2006 07:31 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 24-3-2006 06:47 PM 發表

值搏賠率点計?

I wish I can calculate. But I am unable to do it at this moment. Generally I predict on Mon/Thur. Altough it is not that scientific, at least I have a better mind on how much I bet. Say, the most broken-heart lost this season:

至勇名駒 (負於快步速一役)

p = 0.825/8
D = 12 (我買果陣)
E = 0.10325*13 - 1 = 0.340625

Fraction (F) = 0.2 (temporary setting at this moment) (Assume唔用fraction la...)

C = 30,000

Max betting amount:
30000*0.340625/11=930

我買了Double 有凸。

不過，為了減少bias, 也可考慮將心水馬賠率調低後，再normalize全場馬匹心水。Backgroud: according to statistics of large sample size, the implied winning p of the public is pretty close to the actual p. Thus, after normalization, we have the "reasonable" updated odds instead of biased updated odds.

Normalization: (point out if I am wron.)

Say 3 horses in the race. Here is the odds:

Horse       Odds       Implied p                Adjusted odds       Implied p2
No.1          1.8          0.4583                      unchange                0.4583
No.2          2.5          0.33                               2                      0.4125
No.3          3.9          0.2115                   unchange                0.2115

               total          0.9998                                                    1.0823

Thus, the normalised p = Implied p2/1.0823.

好似要做好多野。不過要戰勝17.5%抽水，要花功夫啊！話說回來，以上計算用execl 一秒就掂。:em35:

贏梗？搞笑啦。揀唔到馬用乜計算都輸。

作者: kentip200 時間: 26-3-2006 01:11 AM

我都想知值搏賠率怎樣計算,可否用實例解釋一下,謝謝

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-3-2006 11:48 AM

值搏賠率 = 0.825/p

How to find out p? It is the core joy/ the key of the game. You already have your own experience to do that. If you are better than the public, you tend to win. Kelly's formula only max the profit and minimize the risk. It cannot turn loss into profit if we already have negative E :)

Good luck!

作者: coffee 時間: 26-3-2006 01:19 PM

Add all together and you can get a Tierce!!! Ging

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 26-3-2006 01:23 PM

Small win :)

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