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標題: 操練必殺技檢討及前瞻 (二千萬元盈利模擬投注の白日夢) [打印本頁]

作者: coffee 時間: 8-4-2006 06:37 PM 標題: 操練必殺技檢討及前瞻 (二千萬元盈利模擬投注の白日夢)

各位賽日密馬の兄弟們，

"I have a DREAM!" quoted from 美國黑人領袖 Martin Luther King 的偉大宣言。每人也有發夢的時候，我也不例外。從我與 Marshal and booking 開設賽日密馬已開始發着夢，到現在也還沒醒來。我的夢想是靠賽馬找到第一個一百萬。我發明操練必殺技，不停提倡有系統的選馬法。我不停受挫折，不斷檢討，無間斷嘗試，至今七個月。我開始感覺有眉目，開始熟習運用操練記錄，對接近自已夢想再邁進一小步。

純靠操練必殺技入圍率選馬太片面 (微觀 Micro view)
每次輸入操練記錄需要大概三至四個鍾。
由九月至十一月，我是用操練必殺技入圍率高達40%方法去揀馬。成績時好時壞不穩定。
十一月開始純靠操練必殺技入圍率揀馬，將每場最高入圍率三匹至四匹作提供。雖然偶有佳作，時有冷品。但始終找不出重心。很多時最高入圍率三匹根本就是一些不濟的馬，但因為不想違背原則也只有提供。自己甚至不能界定什麼是必殺技或好操練。自中紅酒甜心後久未發市，曾有想過放棄操練必殺技而集中做馬房出擊分析 (相信一直有支持我的朋友們知道我在說什麽，亦不作詳述)，但我堅持我的做法是有point和反映現實練馬師心態，所以盡量想辦法去分析回顧。

私家操練的出現 (微觀 Micro view)
私家操練是指一些該馬匹本身曾用及入圍操練。造這個步驟頗費時，After輸入所有操練記錄後，再將每一隻馬的蓞操練記錄從新看一次。私家操練的可信性高，命中也有5成，充份反影每一個練馬師也會對每一隻馬也有不同配套模式。每個赛日也用上一至兩個小時在此。

操練必殺技宏觀入圍率 (宏觀 Macro View)
美國Ford車廠老闆福特先生曾經在一記者招待會說過他每天做的不是開會，巡查或研究技術或市場上如何賺錢，而是用在思考。我學了他，每日也用很多時間去思考，lunch time la, after work la, tea time la, before sleep la, 不停地想我的操練記錄出了什麼問题。為什麼記錄中越高的入圍率不代表真正入圍表現？為什麼九月至三月入圍率只得34%？如何利用現在的操練記錄去選擇真正好操練的馬匹？操練密碼可怎樣解開？
得出結論是我以前的做法只是拼圖的其中一塊，並不代表全部。我於是乎再將每隻馬其中我認為最重要一課，例如草地，河閘等再做一個操練必殺技宏觀入圍率作參考，選取重心。例子如下

沈廐 26 March 2006 四匹馬的操練

Yellow Color 代表沈廐曾在尾課用河閘而入圍率為4成(在 106 次中入位42次)，而其中永利好為私家操練，而燦惑本身的操練必殺技Micro入圍率為最高，所以放棄同場尾課用河閘操練馬而操前兩匹。

透過比較宏觀 (Macro View) 及微觀 (Micro view) 數據，加上私家操練和馬房出擊分析，我現在的提供更精更集中，但時間亦較長，輸入資料加分析用了大概6 - 7 個小時，我的提供絕非玩玩下之作。

改進後的表現很好，46匹選馬有26匹入位成功率達57%。希望我能 keep on improving。

以下為一些成功例子:

鐳射寶財到得勝 Q

力奇福星

天域印度之寶 PQ

好有利

喜得法

好聲氣

安翹

心中有理永利好 PQ

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 11-4-2006 12:28 PM 編輯 ]

作者: coffee 時間: 8-4-2006 06:53 PM 標題: 二千萬元模擬投注の白日夢

這是我上年暑假做的模擬投注記錄，用操練必殺技高入圍率馬匹作Win Place 投注。
從來未公開，只是一個白日夢。但會

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 8-4-2006 08:13 PM

Coffee 兄，程式1W3P... 有對碰P，投注上有點蝕。如平均一場買2隻，已是10% of captial. 幾搏喎！

不過，HKD4,000已矣。試一下無妨。祝你選馬力節節上升！

作者: coffee 時間: 8-4-2006 08:17 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 8-4-2006 08:13 PM 發表
Coffee 兄，程式1W3P... 有對碰P，投注上有點蝕。如平均一場買2隻，已是10% of captial. 幾搏喎！

不過，HKD4,000已矣。試一下無妨。祝你選馬力節節上升！

I think the same way too...but that was a virtual betting, so should evaluate.
in fact, for some very cold places, i can just treat it as win..

作者: cowben 時間: 9-4-2006 05:56 PM

waiting for your good news soon

作者: 社排2 時間: 10-4-2006 12:29 AM

大家赢钱都要多谢吓COFFEE兄0既（讲真）~~
以后会继续:em24::em24:再:em24:

作者: hungera 時間: 10-4-2006 12:32 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 8-4-2006 06:38 PM 發表
now, I will only picked the first 1 or 2 horses.
and sometimes pick 私家操練 horses

Coffee brother,

I want to follow your betting system and make 20million finally (

)....
would u mind to share which 1 or 2 horses u picked eventually....:33:

thanks a lot....

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 03:01 PM

引用:

原帖由 hungera 於 10-4-2006 12:32 PM 發表

Coffee brother,

I want to follow your betting system and make 20million finally ()....
would u mind to share which 1 or 2 horses u picked eventually....:33:

thanks a lot....

I will give only the best selection from now on...and bet with win place

let's dream a while...haha

作者: KK 時間: 10-4-2006 03:14 PM

我贏2萬已很開心了,希望能殺出一條血路.

作者: 社排2 時間: 10-4-2006 03:24 PM

我就要100000元好了~
COFFEE DONE A GREATY WORK！！！
:em24::em24::em24:

作者: hungera 時間: 10-4-2006 04:39 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 10-4-2006 03:01 PM 發表

I will give only the best selection from now on...and bet with win place

let's dream a while...haha

hope ur dream will come true....:33:

作者: neighbour 時間: 10-4-2006 05:46 PM

我也曾如Coffee兄般, 發過這樣的夢, 也曾嘗試實踐, 在我的經驗中, 投注策略佔了我們能否獲利既百分之90既關鍵. 我曾經用一種方式去投注一膽四腳覆式三重彩, 平均一個賽馬天中兩條三重彩, 最為回味既一場係好多年前, 皇冠司令.金科玉律,緊張大師, 一條一膽四腳再加一條三隻覆式, 中左20蚊. 一個月就獲利10多萬, 但係因為太容易同埋開始貪心, 投注開始不依從原有規側, 好快就輸突, 後來也有不停研究新既策略, 試過買單win, 又試過單place, every time 季初都能在頭三個月獲利超過10萬(5000 本), 但之後都係同一下場. 而家就有大有細, 所以無時間再研究乜野新策略, 所以好祈待coffee兄既計劃, 等我都可以搭下順風車. 不過, 有一點我都想分享下, 就係唔知點解次次當我發覺計劃成功, 然後公諸於同好之後, 無幾耐個方案就唔係好work 同埋出現好多deviation. 所以呢個都係其中一個原因令我不能堅持到底.

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 06:31 PM

引用:

原帖由 neighbour 於 10-4-2006 05:46 PM 發表
我也曾如Coffee兄般, 發過這樣的夢, 也曾嘗試實踐, 在我的經驗中, 投注策略佔了我們能否獲利既百分之90既關鍵. 我曾經用一種方式去投注一膽四腳覆式三重彩, 平均一個賽馬天中兩條三重彩, 最為回味既一場係好多年前 ...

Absolutely agree....The only thing I can tell is that horseracing is full of variables.
Different parts of the season have different characteristic. Our major goal is to find out these changes and adapt to it!!

作者: hungera 時間: 10-4-2006 06:36 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 10-4-2006 06:31 PM 發表

Absolutely agree....The only thing I can tell is that horseracing is full of variables.
Different parts of the season have different characteristic. Our major goal is to find out these changes a ...

Yes, and don't 貪心, and try to 原有規側 as much as possible.....so EQ is also very very important.....

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 10-4-2006 06:45 PM

neighbour 兄，高手來的！

我也有相同經驗。我用類似 martingale strategy. 但當我發現買同場買多注於同一馬可獲利甚豐時(2個月贏30,000+，未試過咁醒)，如一隻水星W就贏萬幾一日，我也開始貪心，繼而失利。最後profit under 10,000，好很懊惱。

後獲知Kelly's formula，這幾次採用了效果不俗！比較一下，profit真係多左！最重要是不會overbet冷門！好似剛戰尾場，起碼輸少500!況且，明白了數學程式背後的理論，現在賽後分析易多了！

但暫時因自已的不足之處仍多，我想下一季可發威吧！現時正努力在本季完畢前double captial!還有路遠呢！

重點：不要overbet 冷門。想一想，連開7,8鋪大都常見，10%winning rate的馬連續20次不開又何奇之有？

另按：coffee兄，其實小弟很懷疑你的1W3P策略。始終，長買P與慢性自殺無疑。不過又真係見你中許多冷P，一時間想不到comment.不過，都係個句，四千蚊姐，一試無妨。

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 06:53 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 10-4-2006 06:45 PM 發表
neighbour 兄，高手來的！

我也有相同經驗。我用類似 martingale strategy. 但當我發現買同場買多注於同一馬可獲利甚豐時(2個月贏30,000+，未試過咁醒)，如一隻水星W就贏萬幾一日，我也開始貪心，繼而失利。最 ...

I think at the end I would bet 1 W 3 P on cold horses (say Odds 10 or more) and only W on favourite horses. Let me evaluate a bit.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 10-4-2006 07:01 PM

Understand. In fact, your cold P rate is pretty good. Not flatter you. I also think cold P is your strength! :)

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 07:06 PM

引用:

原帖由大膽於 10-4-2006 07:03 PM 發表

好明顯係“時態”問題喇....

以足球為例，32隊雙循環，初時強弱對賽出現大比數賽果，到未段8強就雙方都打得較謹慎(不容失誤)，比數會出現較多“細波”.....

以馬為例，高質馬「搏殺操練」晌4班可橫掃， ...

very good and have insight 大膽 hing.

I think a similiar direction as well...a trainer may use one training in one class or month or even age.

But I have to collect more data in order to justify them.

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 10-4-2006 07:10 PM

引用:

原帖由大膽於 10-4-2006 07:03 PM 發表

好明顯係“時態”問題喇....

以足球為例，32隊雙循環，初時強弱對賽出現大比數賽果，到未段8強就雙方都打得較謹慎(不容失誤)，比數會出現較多“細波”.....

以馬為例，高質馬「搏殺操練」晌4班可橫掃， ...

所言甚是。xyz T

作者: hungera 時間: 10-4-2006 07:10 PM

I really learn a lot on this post.....and so many GING peoples here......

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 07:27 PM

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 10-4-2006 07:10 PM 發表

所言甚是。xyz T

what do you mean??:em34:

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 10-4-2006 07:29 PM 編輯 ]

作者: coffee 時間: 10-4-2006 07:28 PM

引用:

原帖由 hungera 於 10-4-2006 07:10 PM 發表
I really learn a lot on this post.....and so many GING peoples here......

yes..more sharings...boarden the horizon....train up our analytical power
more argument...train up our critical power

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 10-4-2006 07:43 PM

T = Time :)

作者: neighbour 時間: 11-4-2006 02:07 AM

basically, every kind of gambling or 'investment' need to find a way bet to get biggest profit. And most important is not to greedy. Otherwise, you will easily lost not only the profit and capital too. I also got the same experience in the stock market. Last year, I read a book about using statistical method trace the changing point of a stock. After I read through this book, I created a simple excel program to trace some target stock. After a month of trace, I got some target stock, like the 2600(@4.20), 2628(@5.3), 941(@28.5)...... I tried to buy the warrant of those stock and one by one at the very beginning. I get around 60-80% of profit in 2-3 weeks after each buying. Then later, I become greedy again, tried to buy serveral in the same time. However, because of limited floating capital. Some of the need to sell with lost before the changing point coming. l lost again ( all profit and capital ). The most significant case was a 2600 warrant ( should be 4500). As I need to get back the cash to pay for the loan and credit card. I sold it and then next day it rise 300%. I origianlly can get big win in this warrant but I was too greedy and bet too much to put me into dead end.

So remember.......follow the rule , don't be greedy

作者: ttccttcc 時間: 11-4-2006 02:16 AM

永遠支持你

作者: KK 時間: 11-4-2006 03:04 AM

引用:

原帖由 neighbour 於 11-4-2006 02:07 AM 發表
basically, every kind of gambling or 'investment' need to find a way bet to get biggest profit. And most important is not to greedy. Otherwise, you will easily lost not only the profit and capital ...

什麼書,可否提供書名呢?

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 10:05 AM

long time no see!Just to say hi

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 10:06 AM

come on!!!!u have done a great job:49::49::49:
what r u doing nowadays?

作者: coffee 時間: 11-4-2006 10:17 AM

引用:

原帖由 Yessir 於 11-4-2006 10:06 AM 發表
come on!!!!u have done a great job:49::49::49:
what r u doing nowadays?

discuss hk is not a good place for self improvement.
too much noises and somehow people's points of view are too childish, so I quit posting there for a while.
I think it would be better to concentrate in my own forum, do you think so?
BTW, I do keep looking at your post. Good job last week, sir :em17:

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 10:24 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 11-4-2006 10:17 AM 發表

discuss hk is not a good place for self improvement.
too much noises and somehow people's points of view are too childish, so I quit posting there for a while.
I think it would be better to con ...

i agree that u should concentrate here and concentrate yr own research.
i have also done some of my research nowadays

peoples in discuss hk cant accept 冷門,so i just post some hot things and大路野
honestly,i just bet on cold horse only，e.g.火星

作者: coffee 時間: 11-4-2006 10:26 AM

引用:

原帖由 Yessir 於 11-4-2006 10:24 AM 發表

i agree that u should concentrate here and concentrate yr own research.
i have also done some of my research nowadays
peoples in discuss hk cant accept 冷門,so i just post some hot thin ...

so why not you post your research here?!! We can discuss and share. Many crouching tigers and hidden dragons here in this forum, and they have good critical ability. I am sure it is good for mutual improvement.

:em27:

Cold horse is also my favourite....Keep it up Sir.

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 10:33 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 11-4-2006 10:26 AM 發表

so why not you post your research here?!! We can discuss and share. Many crouching tigers and hidden dragons here in this forum, and they have good critical ability. I am sure it is good for mutu ...

may be i post "cold horse" only in horseracingcode forum

作者: coffee 時間: 11-4-2006 10:34 AM

引用:

原帖由 Yessir 於 11-4-2006 10:24 AM 發表

i agree that u should concentrate here and concentrate yr own research.
i have also done some of my research nowadays
peoples in discuss hk cant accept 冷門,so i just post some hot thin ...

one of our admin Marshal tipped 火星 as well.
Same direction and same road.http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... amp;extra=#pid22650

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 10:47 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 11-4-2006 10:34 AM 發表

one of our admin Marshal tipped 火星 as well.
Same direction and same road.http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... amp;extra=#pid22650

:49::49::49:i also hit on贏唒，風雲

作者: coffee 時間: 11-4-2006 10:55 AM

引用:

原帖由 Yessir 於 11-4-2006 10:47 AM 發表

:49::49::49:i also hit on贏唒，風雲

you must promise me that you post tips here tomorrow la...
we brothers would love to see that.

作者: Yessir 時間: 11-4-2006 11:05 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 11-4-2006 10:55 AM 發表

you must promise me that you post tips here tomorrow la...
we brothers would love to see that.

if have time,i will........

作者: neighbour 時間: 11-4-2006 10:50 PM

引用:

原帖由 KK 於 11-4-2006 03:04 AM 發表

什麼書,可否提供書名呢?

本書唔記得擺左係邊, 只係記得個作者叫古x勝 (大概咁既名)

作者: ablesaint 時間: 12-4-2006 03:07 PM

只要有夢想,夢想可成真
i belive i can fly i belive i can touch the sky
:33:

2千萬:em32::em42:

作者: kwokkong311 時間: 12-4-2006 09:35 PM 標題: 我祝你成成成.........功

我祝你成成成.........功.....忠實讀者上

作者: coffee 時間: 13-4-2006 09:18 AM

12-4-2006 lost $175

作者: coffee 時間: 13-4-2006 11:24 AM

又係一個大教訓。考慮左三次好唔好擺陶醉，最後決定放棄！白日夢第一日就有大教訓

http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... page%3D1&page=2

唔信梁明偉，反而買王志偉同徐君禮

作者: neighbour 時間: 13-4-2006 04:24 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 13-4-2006 09:18 AM 發表
12-4-2006 lost $175

I follow your choice but miss the race3( on the way home) and adjust some bet.
I lost $133.

Don't worry, go ahead. I think this is workable

作者: coffee 時間: 15-4-2006 06:04 PM

15-04-2006
lose $1330 today
total losing $1504

作者: tseyy 時間: 16-4-2006 08:55 AM

Coffee 兄，謝謝您的分享並祝馬場好運！

:em17:

作者: coffee 時間: 19-4-2006 11:19 PM

19-04-2006 -$273

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 20-4-2006 08:29 AM 編輯 ]

作者: hungera 時間: 20-4-2006 08:23 AM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 19-4-2006 11:19 PM 發表
19-04-2006 -$473

should not count r6 - kaka win...right...?

作者: coffee 時間: 20-4-2006 08:27 AM

引用:

原帖由 hungera 於 20-4-2006 08:23 AM 發表

should not count r6 - kaka win...right...?

yeah.....amendeed.. thanks

作者: kohorse 時間: 20-4-2006 10:56 PM 標題: coffee 兄 !!! support!!!

wish you dream success la !!!

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 21-4-2006 01:01 PM

Coffee, 分析不錯！讓我找多D stat 的program給你，期望再進！

作者: coffee 時間: 23-4-2006 05:56 PM

day dream success...23-04-2006 win $4078

作者: raypo 時間: 23-4-2006 07:00 PM

coffee....i use 勝利雄威 as banker...but alll the " leg" came fourth and fifth and also sixth
ho hurt ar.........fuck飛象過河 and 安進 and 心福

作者: neighbour 時間: 23-4-2006 11:17 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 23-4-2006 05:56 PM 發表
day dream success...23-04-2006 win $4078

That's really work !!! support!!!!!!!!

作者: coffee 時間: 24-4-2006 08:50 AM

引用:

原帖由 raypo 於 23-4-2006 07:00 PM 發表
coffee....i use 勝利雄威 as banker...but alll the " leg" came fourth and fifth and also sixth
ho hurt ar.........fuck飛象過河 and 安進 and 心福

過關定單頭?

作者: raypo 時間: 24-4-2006 09:30 AM

單頭

作者: lung 時間: 24-4-2006 10:08 AM

Ging

作者: coffee 時間: 24-4-2006 10:19 AM

引用:

原帖由 raypo 於 24-4-2006 09:30 AM 發表
單頭

你又話剩買過関? 你嘅速道數據得唔得？

作者: phantomhorse 時間: 24-4-2006 12:32 PM

我都信coffee，拖熱門+落飛馬。死得佢，隻雀居然反勝英明大師！\r

我對馬偉昌的評價很低，只是找不到其他理由不買心福。其實，票都對辨。

呀…射10蚊DBL都肥…哈哈

作者: raypo 時間: 26-4-2006 01:51 AM

ok wor...today only lose駿馬繽紛 and 幸運勝
other horse got place lor....太平洋,有聲氣,糖果精英,浦東精神,勝利雄威,安翹,喜得法
77.8% No BS.....but the method is really time-consuming lor

作者: raypo 時間: 26-4-2006 01:52 AM

tomolo..many chance horses....the odds are really attractive...

作者: coffee 時間: 26-4-2006 09:08 AM

引用:

原帖由 raypo 於 26-4-2006 01:52 AM 發表
tomolo..many chance horses....the odds are really attractive...

I was asleep when you ringed me last night...
anything good?

作者: coffee 時間: 26-4-2006 04:38 PM

26-04-2006 -$1840 嘩全部輸兼做燈，真係太失礼

:40::40::em36:

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 27-4-2006 02:30 PM 編輯 ]

作者: xmas8888 時間: 27-4-2006 07:45 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 26-4-2006 04:38 PM 發表
26-04-2006 -$1840 嘩全部輸兼做燈，真係太失礼:40::40::em36:

世上又點可能會有場場必勝的投注人,只要可以長期保持到百分之十的勝出率,在賽馬場上夢想成真,就已經是有可能的事....

作者: coffee 時間: 3-5-2006 05:07 PM

30-04-2006

作者: coffee 時間: 3-5-2006 05:08 PM

03-05-2006

作者: lung 時間: 3-5-2006 05:09 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 3-5-2006 05:08 PM 發表
03-05-2006

Banker = 大摩？

作者: coffee 時間: 8-5-2006 02:04 PM

07-05-2006 -$65

作者: coffee 時間: 13-5-2006 06:20 PM

stop betting already, but still taking record

作者: coffee 時間: 18-5-2006 09:43 AM

17-05-2006 有賺啦！

作者: hungera 時間: 18-5-2006 04:49 PM

引用:

原帖由 coffee 於 18-5-2006 09:43 AM 發表
17-05-2006 有賺啦！

really a great job!!!!

作者: coffee 時間: 18-5-2006 04:51 PM

引用:

原帖由 hungera 於 18-5-2006 04:49 PM 發表

really a great job!!!!

haven't bet ....just keep the record for future evaluation in summer

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://hrc.hk/)