let's make the case a bit simple first, if you only bet on win
if 1/3 chance to win, it means every horse with odd 3 you will break even.

but i think what you mean by 1/3 chance is the horse getting in the place
it means when the horse pay you $30 will let you breakeven

so, i will suggest you consider the odds for win AND place together:
say a horse's win odd is 3 and place odd is 1.6
you bet $100 for each pool
the best case, it wins, you get:
$300 for win and $160 for place, net profit = $260
so the total odd for your horse is 2.6 only
even if it win you still lose in long run, if it run in place you lose more, of course it is worst if it cannot even get into place

so, i suggest, if you keep your bet pattern W and P, you must consider the odd for both W and P, you ONLY bet if the odd is greater than 3

引用:

Originally posted by myth at 22-10-2005 10:36 PM:



according to ur information and calculation, the odd is 2.3, not 2.6
ur principle is $200 (w & P @ 100 ), the return is $460, so the odd of this horse is 460/200, so it should be 2.3

...

i may not be good to express myself, also there is calculation error, my apology
what i mean is, if coffee keep on betting odds (W+P) over 4 WITH his hit rate over 34%, he will have profit

example:
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400
odd 4.2 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400 (total -800)
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, win = +820 (total profit = 20)