引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

Expectation value (E)= 5.88x31% = 1.8223 very good la. much better than me.

If by Kelly's formula: Assume you have 10,000 capital. Use 0.2 as fraction

1st Bet = 10,000*0.2* (1.8223-1)/(5.88-1)
=HKD337

Nth bet = balance*0.2*(0.8223)/(4.88)

在數學上，你會贏最多錢！如果再檢驗一下賠率分布，得出不同賠率的 E，更佳！

reference for kelly's formula: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product ... glance&n=283155

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 30-8-2006 07:30 AM 發表
"good result" mean lose in a short lenght...

agree with difference age and case need a difference training pattern. but I dont mind if it only happen 1 in 10 .coz the return odds alrea ...

呵呵…我從WB的talk 中才知Kelly's 的好處。後在"計得精彩"獲知算式。R 兄有冇計臨場計快D ?

我也是用計得精彩的。但有時要計Q，PQ (自已estimate)，如遇上多項投注，太慢。(我最後3分鐘或更遲才決定下注的。)

另按：我與CXWONG有數面之緣。當時，未出書，仲唔知佢賭馬！年幾前啦。佢\可能唔記得我囉。