以我所知，職業睹徒是不買P的，只主力買W。一個是"馬神"的前拍檔團，一個是大戶。我與他們絕不熟絡，不過他們沒有需要講大話。

從搏彩上，買P怎樣蝕底之前已談論過。不能忽視值搏率啊！

"馬神Partner: 怎樣分配注碼不太清楚。他們自有一套計算方法，厘定值搏率。值搏便買W。如果兩匹馬都值搏怎辦？我真的不知。

大戶是騎師的老細，騎師搏馬就會通知老細。跑P無錢收的。咁你明白點解W對騎練咁重要啦！

總之，他們就有一個明顯的共通點：不買P。

其實，投注方法必須依據你的命中率及回報率來厘定。34%的P命中率+回報率~2倍(除本)是不俗，但非絕對優勢。不過咁，從你的紀錄可見你的冷P成績不俗，可以諗下加以利用。點利用你自度啦。我諗到，講比你聽都冇用。馬迷就是最講ego的一群。唔算自己o既o野，中到都冇終極快樂。

何況，我諗唔到:cool:

引用:

Originally posted by cmleeeeeee at 24-10-2005 12:40 AM:

coffe 兄
           我認為贏錢的秘缺並不在於揀馬的方法,必殺技和必殺秒數只可滿足你對賽馬的興趣,並不可以幫你贏錢.老實講,34%入圍率只是一般水準,我不用研究隨時都找到超過30%的入圍率,例如:泥地1650,二檔 ...

I use the exact method.

Most of my friends, especially whose major are math related, also say that this method does not work and give the Macau casino example. In Macau, the odds is 1 only (not 2. we have to deduct the bet from the odds.), we have to use a lot of asset for a tiny return. However, for horse racing, the return is much higher than 1. Of course, the chance of win is lower than 50%. The most important thing is to raise the winning %; meanwhile, we dont bet the horse lower than the reasonable odds.

I have bet horse for 15 years. In the first few years, it was easy to win when I just did not bet any on Tony Cruz horses. And, I sometimes catched some really cold horses. However, I lost in 2002 and 2003. I thought I must do something wrong on the betting method. Then, I came up the same idea as cm said last year and won HKD15,000 with HKD20,000 asset in 6 months. The total betting amount is around HKD120,000 in those 6 months. Well, the result was not good. Anyway, won some and gained some confidence back.

This year I raise my asset to HKD30,000. Now total bet is HKD43,000, profit is HKD23,000. I dont intend to show up. Truely, I just want to point out, aAfter a rough estimation, if I dont use that method, my balance is about break even at this moment. We have to know 20% is gone for tax, and around 5% is gone for pro, trainers and jockeys. We have 75% of the pool only. If we dont use the scientific method to overcome the 25%, it is soooo difficult to win.

In fact, I know the same kind of this method years ago. Due to ego, I refused. However, when the other guy keep winning over HKD100,000 for seasons (he is the fd of my fd only.) and does not spend any time on reviewing horses (he follows the tips of a newspaper only. haha), I believe the betting method works.

How about if all people use this method? Well, find the new strategy. If unable to win, just leave. That's it. That's life. I dont find any fun when I am losing :).

good luck.

引用:

Originally posted by coffee at 24-10-2005 06:54 PM:
if I bet 10 races consecutively and it loses, the capital I put will be enormous.....
What horses would you pick phantom? You choose it yourself or you base on a certain jockey?

First of all, thank you for trusting my words ;)

In fact, the above mentioned betting way really works. My fd did win over 1M by HKD30,000 asset by betting on Macus. Too bad, he had so much money at that moment and dreamed too much. Finally lost all the asset is kind of stupid. If I were him, I withdrew HKD500,000 first for sure win la. (The 1M guy and HKD100,000 guy are different people. In fact, the 1M guy is a member of a group only. He won around HKD330,000.)

Go back to horse picking.

On the marco side, I pick the horse by HISTORY. I dont mean the horse past record; I mean the trend of the racing history. I will further determine below.

On the micro side, I pick horse from the video. Generally I spend 10~20 hours weekly on reviewing video + photo. It is complicated to tell you how I estimate as different races have different conditions. I have so many rules to judge the horses' performance. Perhaps, as a Chess lover, I know there is no golden step/opening to win. Racing is interactive, it is impossible to find an absolute way to win. Because 變幻才是永恆。

Macro findings:
公眾大熱，買多數杰
泛指那些被一致學看好的大熱門。值持搏率嚴重偏低。
當中，尤其是"計出來"的大熱門最不穩。剛剛，"齊齊贏"就是個很好的例子。另外，一些已跑了十多場，里程已盡的澳紐四班馬，尤其是上仗於四十多分勝出那些，常常輸死人。原因很簡單：得的話，頭十戰內早升上三班了。平常的馬，一生能贏三場已很好。一匹中駟，要連續交出好水準的機會太低，又不值搏，長買就是必敗。長勝方法？根本沒有。但不正視值搏率的話，勝算低矣。

銀行馬

都是那一句：香港商賽事成熟，匹馬多次成為熱門亦必有看好的原因。可是，跑馬不同人跑。今天負126lb.跑1200M做1:10:00，不代表明天都一樣。需知對手實力較高時，要取得好位就更難，需付出更多元氣。因此，很多馬匹，尤其是中班馬，水準飄忽才是正常。看好的馬熱過幾次釘蓋後就會嚇走捧場客，但爭勝能力不變呢！值搏率高了。別人存錢我提款，這便是銀行馬了。\r

兩場半馬

一般來說，一匹PPG能擠身二班的話，一生頭兩仗多能入Q。然而，馬匹表現與賠率掛勾。若然頭兩場當中其中一仗賠率超過40倍的話，我會只當馬兒跑了半場。所以，若一匹PPG能在首兩場半內入Q，則推斷有二班潛力。當然不是每匹二班PPG在都是兩場半內馬。不過，暫時來說，以這方法選馬，命中率及回報率不俗。

提醒一下，個別馬房較慢熱，此法行不通。那個馬房？自己做功課吧。\r

I will disclose my selections. Then you can see my way which is totally different from yours. However, it doesnt mean I am better than you. Different ways can win if your winning chance% and return are reasonable.

前事不忘，後事之師。知己知彼，百戰百勝。馬事即世事，世事如棋。棋有道，道有數。明數者，未是勝，只是窺道。不明數者，易脆敗，等運到矣！求神拜佛望天打掛怨天尤人不可取；敢愛敢做自強不息樂天知數快活人。

突然有感而發姐。

這個九月真順。知己，在投注策略上，仍有進步空間，可以再贏盡一些。知彼，在選馬方法上，也嘗試算得精細些。可是，欠缺精細的運算和統計方法，只增加了每場可選擇馬匹數目，卻不能同步地評估出精確的值搏率，未必有益。故在知己方面做多點功夫。\r

I do not intend to discourage you. But those words were written a month ago as an introduction of my Sept review (My readers are my real fds who started to bet horses a few years ago). Hope it is a positive message for you :)

And, have to remind you it is impossible to win by betting 4xP in a single race. Place positions are limited. One of your picks get a P, it means the other horses have 2 positions to get the P! Thus, suggest you to bet 4x6QP. Anyway, get 1 P no profit. Get 2 P tiny profit. Why not go for QP or even Q?

I review on a monthly basis.

I focus on how I win. Of course, do keep all betting records and also study my losing pattern. However, they are hard copies.

And you can see, I win mainly from big jockeys and big stables. It fits the actual situation. Money game, richie win poor. Big "shrimp" small, the fact!

引用:

Originally posted by cmleeeeeee at 26-10-2005 04:57 PM:

thank for your sharing,I am totally agreed with you on your way of thinking and method of betting.you are a wise investor not a gambler.Actually, I am interested on your attached file,could you p ...

Click "Betting analysis" ok la.. then u will download.