引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 31-10-2006 12:34 AM 發表
can show the horse's name ma?
better to see it woo.

Ok.  do it this time onwards.

Would like to contribute some?

引用:

原帖由 Justinian 於 30-10-2006 11:45 PM 發表


小胖兄，我一向都有睇你的帖，只是冇留言。
支持你！:smile_15:

順提一個問題，其實想問好耐，你的Win投注到現在，
可有掌握到一點心得嗎？
能否確定在什麼條件下，(例如：班次、磅位、路程 ... 等)
...

Hi brother,

Yes, a little.  My rule of picking horses is purely based on "physics".  That is, for even horses, some of them have better situation and positions.  Also, I eliminate some horses that has few chances and not worth betting (e.g. has trouble on eating food)


I found that even for last season, it works best for non-big racing dates and on latter half of eason and "small racing days".  Maybe during first half of season or big racing days, there're a lot of tatics and plans for winning big races by the trainers.  As a result, the contribution or % of physics is less.   It works for Sep this season also as maybe, there's no tactic yet and also maybe even the trainers not know much about their horses yet.

So, I'm not too worrying about the fall in result in Oct06.  At least on most of the days, there's some return and not losing all of them.  Even most of the return are rather hot.

For muddy, I think it works worse than grass.  One of the reason is that foreign riders ride much much better than hk guys, especially those young guys.  I didn't take this factor into consideration yet.  Another reason is that, of course, as expected, many horses are grass horse and you know nothing about their muddy skills.  This cause the race to be even more "uneven" (even we don't know that how it's uneven)

Hope it helps.  Maybe there's more to discuss if you want.


班次、磅位 :  I think these 2 offsets each.  It makes the races more "even" and helps my method a lot (more even => more depend on physics).  As a result, I ignore both.
路程 : for this factor, I think I need some improvement.  However, I can't find any source that can provide me with concrete rules of elimination.  Most of the newspaper are talking about the horse status.
And also, sometimes horse can run longer.  Sometimes run shorter.  It's rather difficult to manage it.  And finially, most trainers wont put their horse into unsuitable tracks. Maybe they want to try.  
Anyway, I think the lack of accurate source is the major factor.

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 11:25 AM 編輯 ]

Any brother bought Sun Daily?  I'll buy 3 newspaper already today, not want to buy the 4th.  Very wasteful.

If yes, can you list the "status=D or E" horses?  Thanks.

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 31-10-2006 02:48 PM 發表
Dont trust newspaper. The "status" is written before watching the horses. Most of them are the subjective and wild guess only!

sometimes the status are "concluded" during the ...

Well, I don't think so.  Those guys may not be good at predicting the winning horse.  But for bad horses, there must te reasons. And different people may notice different areas why the horse is bad.

For example, Mr. A may notice that horse 1,2,3 runs bad in the morning.  Mr. B may notice horse 4,5,6 doesn't eat their food or have bad shxt.  Mr. C may notice horse 7,8,9 has very bad trainer activities.  It comes up with the result of the remaining horses.  Each of A, B, C doesn't have the ability to pick 4 winning horses accurately, but they can pick up 3 losing horses accurately.  But for us, if we collect the losing horses, we can predict the winning horses.

For Sun Daily, for example, there'll be photos and descriptions for each horse of the 3T races.  Each with comments why they feel the horse is good or bad.

They may be arbitrary in picking the 4 horses in their tips when choosing from 8~9 possible horses, but they're not arbitrary in eliminating the 5~6 bad horses.

Maybe the deficits about this method is that it's not complete enough.  For example, there's no newspaper talked about the "speed" of the horse, or track record, or the "training pattern".  So, maybe someone here can contribute.
If they're lazy, they can just say every horse is average.  If they say the horse is bad, there must be reasons.

And finally, dead-fire horse is the best method of cooperation. It can also determines which race worth to bet and which race are very even.

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 04:10 PM 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 phantomhorse 於 31-10-2006 04:14 PM 發表
you still think those newspaper are that responsible? I am not saying they are cheating. however, dont think paying HKD6 will get the accurate info . It is my advice. why I say that.. hehe, i can ...

ic, thanks for your advise.

Anyway, actually there's very little contribution on normal newspaper on the result.  As you can see, there'll be very few "bad" horses per day.  No great effect, especially for those normal newspaper.

Of course, for each newspaper that I picked, I've done some studying and there's evidence that it worths notice.  What I found is that, for racing day, there's not a single normal newspaper worth reading!!!  Maybe it's what you said.

But for the day before, there's a few newspaper that is useful.  This is my findings, believe it or not.

As I'm looking for some worthless information (dead-fire horses) to some others, I believe maybe I can get it by $6.

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 04:26 PM 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 Justinian 於 31-10-2006 04:26 PM 發表


"Sun Daily" 只在賽馬日才買，亦只參考賠率，未知你所講的 status=D or E" horses 在那裡。若有需要PM我。

The horse status of D or E won't appear in racing day.  That's the reason that I said racing days newspapers are useless/rubbish.  Most may be affected by odds.

If you have any Sun Dailly on the 1~2 days before, you'll notice that there's rating on each horse - A,B,C,D,E.  This is quantitative and is useful, at least for D & E.

Thanks anyway.  I'm looking for today's Sun Daily.  Maybe I get it from Lib.

r1 : 6,7,10,11,12
r2 : 1,11,12
r3 : 9,11
r4 : 5,7,10,12
r5 : 1,3,4,8,11
r6 : 2,5
r7 : 2,6,10
r8 : 10,12

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 09:33 PM 編輯 ]

r1 : 6,7,10,11,12
r2 : 1,5,8,10,11,12
r3 : 4,8,9,11
r4 : 4,5,7,10,12
r5 : 1,2,3,4,8,11
r6 : 2,5,6,8,9
r7 : 1,2,6,9,10,11
r8 : 1,7,10,12

唔好意思,唔預版主．．．

betting (remaining horses) :
R1 :
1        D356        贏得多
2        E004        沙場赤兔
3        E264        甜少
4        C334        馬駿寶
5        E025        星惑
8        D346        起得勁
9        E224        靈光七號
R2 :
2        D244        神龍金剛
3        C244        銀鑽
4        D170        乖巧
6        C213        靚得精彩
7        E062        必永勝
9        E305        威財寶
R3 :
1        G159        源活海
2        E095        威猛情人
3        C189        驃騎
5        G052        悉尼新聞
6        E262        多利到
7        E140        有聲氣
10        E066        友誼第一
R4 :
1        B277        齊齊贏
2        B036        信心寶
3        G118        國家富強
6        D361        百勝大師
8        B324        查士丁尼
9        C142        真心老友
11        D009        野蠻
R5 :
5        B278        喜一龍
6        B383        天下無雙
7        D162        更奇妙
9        B327        彪形大漢
10        B160        活國寶
12        E198        美好祝福
R6 :
1        A177        洋洋自得
3        C163        大滿貫
4        C320        春風化雨
7        E251        即時燦爛
10        C214        雄威
11        C333        光速
12        E306        育成明駒
R7 :
4        E302        先機
5        D211        動力金剛
7        G049        大圓機
8        G072        紅皮柚
R8 :
2        C015        好利高
3        G062        我來也
4        B125        富有心得
5        D108        高勝俠
6        G111        創惑
8        E195        幸運派彩
9        C285        業精於勤
11        G018        酒勝

6隻或以下可考慮買pq
現時: r2 (6隻), r5 (6隻), r7 (4隻)
total bet : $150+$150+$60=$360

完全無睇賠率.
總覺得西左太陽帝國有D怪怪地... 唯有賴快步速...
話明"現時",等緊大家覆

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 10:11 PM 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 ccho0567 於 1-11-2006 12:21 AM 發表

紅色代表西走
我會買4. 7. 8.埸

ccho0567兄，果然有信用!!
不過你有D馬紅得一半，唔知係真唔係．．．

執下先 :

R1 :
2        E004        沙場赤兔
3        E264        甜少
4        C334        馬駿寶
5        E025        星惑
8        D346        起得勁
R2 :
2        D244        神龍金剛
3        C244        銀鑽
4        D170        乖巧
6        C213        靚得精彩
7        E062        必永勝
9        E305        威財寶
R3 :
3        C189        驃騎
5        G052        悉尼新聞
6        E262        多利到
7        E140        有聲氣
10        E066        友誼第一
R4 :
1        B277        齊齊贏
2        B036        信心寶
9        C142        真心老友
R5 :
5        B278        喜一龍
7        D162        更奇妙
9        B327        彪形大漢
10        B160        活國寶
12        E198        美好祝福
R6 :
3        C163        大滿貫
4        C320        春風化雨
7        E251        即時燦爛
10        C214        雄威
12        E306        育成明駒
R7 :
4        E302        先機
5        D211        動力金剛
7        G049        大圓機
8        G072        紅皮柚
R8 :
3        G062        我來也
4        B125        富有心得
6        G111        創惑
8        E195        幸運派彩
9        C285        業精於勤

變為場場都買得.
有意思!!!

$30 : r4
$60 : r7
$100 : r1,3,5,6,8
$150 : r2

total pq bet (模擬）: $740
睇下成績點?...
不過如果得既話，有D根據會好D...

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 1-11-2006 12:50 AM 編輯 ]

死囉...

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