I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
but the really important things I think u guys need to concern is.

each horse have different training method... some horse maybe dont need to "save" his energy before race and still can have a good match,
some horses maybe need to "save" his eneryg before he get a good result...

some horse maybe not need to "test gate" to make him have a good refresh in race.
but some horse need to have a "test gate" to let him concern on next race.

the following is the result if we bet the horse in this kind of "training pattern" in the last 4 yrs.

year        win        total        rate       avg_odd

2003        18        73         25%        6.805
2004        53        162        33%        7.890
2005        53        192        28%        7.03
2006        39        127        31%         5.88

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 06:07 PM 編輯 ]

as wat I say "pattern" dat mean dats thing keep happen...

here is a example...


V096        9/3/2003        4/6/2003        8.7        1        '23223223.............
C050        26/12/2002        11/6/2003        5.5        3        '22322232............
A332        19/2/2003        14/6/2003        19        1        '22222222.............................
C071        15/3/2003        14/6/2003        6.4        3        '22322322..............................................
B423        11/1/2003        14/6/2003        6        4        '22222522...........................................
B187        10/5/2003        14/6/2003        18        2        '23223232..........................................
A161        4/6/2003        18/6/2003        7.1        4        '22232232.........................................
V205        20/11/2002        18/6/2003        22        3        '23223223........................................
B427        4/5/2003        22/6/2003        3.7        3        '22232223....................................

the first line is horse_id  
the first date is the date the horse have a training pattern like in line 6 and have a good result in dat race
the second date is the date dat the horse have a same training patter like last time have a good result in same training pattern.
then 4th line is odds. and 5th line is position
last line is the training... 3 is "fast jump"  2 is "just walk"  4 is "test gate"    5 is "racing"
the "." is I just hide some.. coz I cant really show u all my reports as Its a secret of my report... but anyway.. I just want to tell u guys
dat they really have a "real" training when the trainer really want to win the race.

PS: btw.. sure I am not using human feeling to chose horse.. Its all depends the horse have the traning or not .. just like coffee's style. but in different way.

and I just want to say out this point only..

"each horse have different training method"

C109        15/2/2004        25/4/2004        58        1
C109        1/6/2003        15/2/2004        9.9        3
C109        1/3/2003        10/5/2003        2.7        6

just show one more example.. this horse really have a regular training.... even dat race I dont think the trainer and owner think they can really win..
but as the trainer try his best to train the horse before the important race.. so dats the result..

"good result" mean lose in a short lenght...

agree with difference age and case need a difference training pattern. but I dont mind if it only happen 1 in 10 .coz the return odds already higher than the money we lose on dat kind of horse.

我信每隻馬都有個別模式，但佔的只屬小數。

ya, so I only bet the 小數 .

I am a person who also using kelly as the betting method o.O

=MAX(M3*(E3-1/J3)*J3/(E3-1),0)

:)

To Freddie,

m3  =   一季資本
e3  =    賠率
j3   =    估計勝出率

To Phantomhorse,

wat's u mean by 有冇計臨場計快D?
I am using Excel just type in the "real odds from hkjc" then the excel will tell u how to bet.. btw. I have roundup the betting
money as $10 too. so just follow the excel file..

anyway. here is the code in excel.

=MAX(H3*(E4-1/J4)*J4/(E4-1),0)    (<---- this is how much u need to bet)
=IF(C4="win",H3+E4*G4,H3)-G4-I4  (<---- this is calculate how much u left after the bet)

btw, I am using 計得精彩's formula to reformat this formula... coz its take too much time to use the formula
provided by the book. And seems too diffucult for us if we really dont have too much to bet. so I do it in
a simple way like the formula I show u here.

dats why I only betting on WIN at this moment... calcuate Q and PQ take too much times....
and I try to use Kelly to calcuate Q... but seems the formula is quite difficult to edit to Q mode from my win mode in Excel.