the following is a result of  

if the horse run in place or lose in a short length (like less than 3 horses) in the same distance(same course).
wat happen if the horse next run in same distance(same course) again.

we find out total have  5768 horses in last 2 years 2004 - 2006 seasons qualified this condition.

and here is the result.

win        11.41%
Q        22.42%
P        32.45%

same distance and same course

ya.. base on training plus more other factors , for example

http://www.horseracingcode.com/v ... &extra=page%3D1

:)

actually u can use the excel file i put here to calculate urself..

for the 11.41% the avg odd is 7.2786798.

so if u use fix amount to bet. u will lose money.

so its not a report show u wat to buy, just give u some ideas how to pick the horse .

its just one of the factor dat the horse have chance to win. so its a factor we need to take care and think about this horse before we del it in our betting list. if u find out the horse under this condtion have a good training. have a good jockey( as u think) or even have some weakness horse in the same race. then dat mean its a good chance to bet this kind of horse. so the rate will not be just 11.41%.

FOR 7.78% u need more than odd 12 to win a horse
FOR 11.41% u need more than odd 8.7 to win a horse

in the horse racing field.. we talk about the return rate more than accurate rate. coz if u want a better accurate.. just pick the favourite. but the return rate will be lose for sure.

the way we wanna make money from horse racing is "the return rate" not the accurate rate of the horse u pick.

hmm.maybe my english is not good enough to explain. but i dont know well about typing chinese..

ur welcome to ask more question.

thanks.

一匹馬在同場地同路程輸近再出同場地同路程預計會有表現, 差不多係人都會有這個想法, 有何希冀 ? 只得 1 成多的勝出率兼多數熱門, 全是欠投注價值的東西.

dats why if we find out a horse under this condition but in a good odds. (might have good odds becoz other horse are over bet)
then we need to condiser about the horse under this condition.

dats why I keep saying this is not the whole idea to pick the horse. but as a tools to find out the horse is mean to bet or not.