引用:
原帖由 贏馬人 於 26-2-2010 04:12 發表 
如何能做到真正能贏錢的人不多，一般要做一個練馬師對於馬的部署手法，每一位練馬師做一百項數據，所有的點點滴滴小動作都要兼顧。24個練馬師大約要二千幾項數據。還要做五年以上才有準確率。基數大了才可信。本人花 ...
I assume 數據 means factors, not data points. (e.g."days between last gallop & next race" is a factor, a particular horse had "6 days" is a data point for this factor.)
5 years data = ~3500 races, or 40,000 horse instance, or less than 2000 average per trainer. So your data point to factor ratio is less than 20:1 on average. With this low ratio, you system is almost guaranteed to have overfit. Therefore it may look very good on paper on past races, but cannot really predict the future races.
To build a good system, you need
as little factors as possible, but
as many data points as possible. Does it make sense to you?
