為何喜勁飛能勝出

If you brothers check the performance of 喜勁飛 in her race 687 preceding her last winning race 725,
you will find in that 1400M, the horse achieved the fastest last 400M time, 22.6 (which is the 3rd fastest last 400M in Class 3 1400M). After that race, the trainer keeps on giving pressure on her in the track work. In fact the track work is excellent because in that work with*** with a companion horse, she acheived the time below 50 with the last section time below 22.5. As 2 section time is 45.8, it is only 2 lines below the standard section time of 3rd and 4th section time of the standard section time in Class 3 1400M. It means the horse is fit and ready to win. Since the horse is a stayer and is proved to have the powerful 400M speed in 1400M, she eventually wins the race. I tell you a secret. This is anti-trend horse. Reason, as the pace of race 725 is slow run in the first section, 喜勁飛 is a stayer and can still win the race even by losing almost 5 horse length competing outside.
She can be classifed as a super horse. Next season, she at least has two more wins!!
   
助30.1
30.1  

助 (內圈踱一圈) 水  
  
助 (內圈踱兩圈) 水      
助32.0
32.0      
助 (內圈踱一圈)     
柏45.8 智勇雙全
23.6  22.2 (草閘)***     
水
助 (內圈踱一圈)     
助 (內圈踱一圈) 水  
助 (內圈踱一圈)  
柏53.6
27.4  26.2      

副 (內圈踱一圈)

我投注喜勁飛的理由只有一個,就是田草千六,會跑出大冷馬的機會實在太低

喜勁飛上次的段速達全程快未段快，初出尾置馬造此時間，再出只要增程強配，操練上再拍跳快功夫，便可贏得，案例，大家平安。葵扇煙，星際雄獅。你可返查贏馬前的段速走位就知道此類段速增程強配操練足必可贏馬，喜勁飛賽前我用做全日馬膽來賭。是全日信心最大的馬。

星際雄獅        W        薛        4歲        4班        4-9檔        122-122        1400杜-1600杜        9994名1-1/2二疊轉最大外疊        1.22.6（22.9自22.6        19.19天                                                                                                                                                                                       
大家平安        輸W        姚        3歲        4班        8-6-4檔        125-122-120        14諾-14祺-16祺        13.13.6名3-1/2三疊轉大外檔        1.22.4（23.4自22.6        34.15天        27.8 23.8 (51.6) 薛達祺 綠茵飛駒 寶威威         30.2 26.2 (56.4) 助手 經緯渡         1400M 薛達祺 (06/14)         祺 1000M 877名 13.5 21.8 23.2 (0.58.5)         32.0 25.4 23.0 (1.20.4) 冼文諾 太陽威力         34.2 28.7 23.8 (1.26.7) 冼文諾 全德威                                                                                                                                         
喜勁飛        W        賀        3歲        4班        4-10檔        126-126        1400柏-1600柏        10.8.5名2-1/2二疊中檔追        1.22.6（23.0自22.5好        初出18天        27.8 25.5 (53.3) 柏寶        26.2 22.4 (48.6) 柏寶 智勇雙全草閘         31.3 (31.3) 助手         30.3 (30.3) 助手        1400M 柏寶 (05/13)        28.6 26.1 (54.7) 柏寶         23.4 22.2 (45.6) 柏寶 喜鵲 草閘        29.8 24.2 (54.0) 副練馬師         柏寶 1200M 866名 25.6 25.8 23.3 (1.14.7)按實居後        26.9 23.6 (50.5) 柏寶 心中有程         柏寶 1050M 656名居後按實 16.8 22.4 22.8 (1.02.0)         23.0 23.2 (46.2) 柏寶 真係駋 草閘        32.4 24.9 (57.3) 副練馬師         停課1個半個月        較早前兩個大閘                                                               
三只馬案例是否極相似啊，對號入座是否可信心十足啊。三只都是處女馬第一次贏馬前的段速顯示.大家都是增程才可贏，大家平安不增程輸完再增程一樣贏

[ 本帖最後由 贏馬人 於 5-7-2009 12:29 PM 編輯 ]

保羅兄，你不如問下-天祿，雄心馬主，點解贏馬啊。一只是谷草馬轉田草，其實田草1200季初都跑過三名的，田草必合，兩只馬最相同之處就是演出特準的馬，狀態處於一生中的最巔峰時期，好難用段速時間來定此類馬，所謂越強越強的馬，雄心馬主贏馬時間其實非常一般，1.23.0（23.2，此時間只屬四五班經常可造到的段速，升三班仍可再贏馬，較量造的段速好過距好多，1.22.8（22.8大勝1-3/4馬位升班後大敗，此是失淮馬，段速極佳也會輸。健康上屬弱馬.不利連拼，只宜率銳一擊的馬。因此馬有胃病的馬。

天祿 can win  in Race 731 1400M ,  first of all ,she underwent the best track work since last race:

助(55.9 )29.8  26.1罩     助(55.2 ) 29.5  25.7  民(51.1) 27.6  23.5***  民(51.5 )27.6  23.9 罩  
  民(50.6)  27.2  23.4 ***

She could stand two track work under the time 52.0 plus the last section time of both work below 23.5.

Secondly, in Race 629 1650M Happy Valley, she won with the sectional time
28.74 24.38 25.24 22.63 (1.41.0 ). The last 400M speed 22.63 is the fastest in the last year Cass 3 1650M which is 22.81 done by 聚寶駒        in Race 17 on 12/9/07. Though in that race 629, she did not  have fastest fisinishing time. But that race is a slow run race. The first and
2nd section are 52.3 77.6 as compared with Class 3 1650M standard 52 and 77.  The slow run should be no good for 天祿 as she is a late-fininsher. But she still wins showing her anti-trend ability.

For both reasons, 天祿 can win in Race 731 as we know racing ability /pace of average horse of 1400M Shatin is same as 1650M  Happy Valley as evidenced by ex-trainer 梁裼麟. In other words, for those horses which can cope with the pace of 1650M,  she can manage 1400M too.

雄心馬主 in Race 722 won is that she took the advantage of her front leading character. We know that the track was yielding-to-soft on that day. By using his average pace in different sections method, she won the race . Besides another reason is that she is good at soft track. Before the race, nobody knows. But his front leading habit does do her advantageous.  For soft track performance records, I won't take it as reference. What I learn from such races is to know which horse is better in a soft track. I forget altogethr their time at all.

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能跑出這個段速, 看來前景不錯喎

[ 本帖最後由 dane 於 5-7-2009 04:25 PM 編輯 ]

When the right time comes, I shall publish the fastest 400M speed for different classes
and difference distances  for current season for all brothers to take them as reference.
The data is very useful when you evaluate the performance of each horse because we
have a proven yardstick.

根據以上論點，呢批4班前後兼備馬咪大把世界？

[ 本帖最後由 山埃博士 於 5-7-2009 05:55 PM 編輯 ]