引用:

原帖由 chaonima 於 24-6-2009 11:47 AM 發表
賽日密馬的山埃博士你老母封我IP可以不去，你那网址一点价值都没有，还不如船长这个网站！


投注方法：
此斋W很少连着三场都不中一场的， ...

haha... easy easy brother...

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 24-6-2009 12:22 PM 發表
Dane兄, I found your pace chart from the website correspond swtih Speed Power column of HKJC. I told brothers before in another post that most of the estimates are misleading. Don't rely on it. Cross- ...

11, 8, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 1, 5, 7, 10

一堆數字睇唔明

今晚國中之星 今晨加操:24/06/2009 踱步 沙田  內圈  內圈 快踱一圈 蔡明紹 , 有沒有brother
知道是好兆頭或不好兆頭, 正常而論, 應正面, 我貼士第二選,原因last 400M比較弱,但是檔位好, 可離補小小last 400M速度

排位 影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8M more in 1000M race, 3M in1200M -1400M races and 5.8M in 1800 race. For example,
1200M race, the draw of a horse is changed from 1st to 11th, it may run 10x5.8M distance
more i.e.191.4 ft. Assuming the length of a average horse is 6', it means that it will lose
31.9 horse lengths, meaning around 5.4 second slower. But it is not realistic and I think
the assumption is  based on a horse all along running his lane of 11th draw, like an
athlete competing his 100M race. He has to keep his lane all the way.

Hence, the above finding is not ideal and misleading. Take an example of the last race last night, 國中之星beats down 陽明寶寶 is due to her better draw from his last draw 11th to 3rd whereas陽明寶寶 only benefits from his last draw  4th to 1st. Of course my system tells me that without taking into account the condition of the draw, I rate and estimate 陽明寶寶 coming first and 國中之星 coming thrid. Now,國中之星 wins.  The reason perhaps, among
others is due to her much better draw. She benefits from 8 horse gates and 陽明寶寶  only
benefits from 3 horse gates.

Are there any brothers have done any research on this area?  Please comment.

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 11:19 AM 發表
排位 影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8 ...

請移玉步！

http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php?tid=27138&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid199241

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 11:19 AM 發表
排位 影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8 ...

山埃有檔位加權，結果得出國中之星排第一，陽明排第二

第 8 場  1650米 第二班 (100-080 分) 跑馬地 草地  - A 賽道
8 國中之星
6 陽明寶寶

博士兄,山埃兄link 我進入不到, 奈何? 可有方法進入? 非常有興趣, 請賜教
http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php ... =page%3D1#pid199241

博士兄, 閱讀權限30 剛改, 可以進入那link, 謝謝,拜讀后,寫感想

已加分成30權限！

From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a horse with a draw outside the fence will run slower. In fact, it
is a common sense. I want to ask brothers if they can providie some more accurate estimate of the time difference of a horse with a draw only one horse gate difference. I mean how much time is affected by having a draw say from 1st draw last time in the same distance compared with a draw say from 11th draw this time in the same distance?

From my experience,  the 1st sectional time does matter. To my surprise, the time of
a horse with a worse draw mostly finishes faster than a better draw by  about 0.045 per horse gate. Taking the example of Race 611 and 655, 玩具神話 finishes
the 1st section 0.45 faster in Race 655 when she has a draw 11th compared with his
excellent draw 1st in Race 611. As a result,she wins in Race 611 but fails in Race 655.
Even though both races are fast run races, the finishing time of her 1st section in Race 611 is 28.57 compared with that  27.6 in Race 655, 0.45 time difference (faster) , she can be complained that she follows too closely  the horses competing in the front and ends up losing enough strength to compete in her last 400M. Or we can say 馬偉昌 not clever enough to have the horse to stay near the fence and finds the cover like what he does in Race 611. He should know 玩具神話is not a springer which can't lead the front and can't control the pace. As a result,  she competes in three/four horse position from the fence and with no cover, wasting strength.  So, she lost the race.  Her finishing time
of Race 611 and 655 are 1.40 and 1.41.5, 1.5 slower. But I don't think it is reasonable to say each horse gate difference should account for 0.15 (1.5 divided by 10) time dfference.  Am I right?

My question is