My qestion is which brother has done a good research on this area. We all want
to increase the hitting of our target horses. Thanks in advance.

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 03:38 PM 發表
From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a  ...

太難唔識計

同一匹馬, 相同路程檔位, 都可能跑不出一樣時間, 時間或許有偏差, 時間偏差有多少, 又取決於馬匹狀態, 又如同場步速不同, 跑出時間也會不同, 條數太難計

將個波交俾博士先, 麻煩博士深入研究

I 100% support your suggestion!

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 03:38 PM 發表
From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a  ...

I have a research about the relationship of a draw and horse.
its simply tell a horse in this draw is good for its running method or is it match his best
running method with this draw. if u need more example. tell me the racing day, and see I can post
the record of dat day about my report.

here is the record I have in last racing nite.



my computer program will gave marks (1-5) to each horse and I only list out the 5 marks and 4 marks only.

and for sure the draw advantage is only one of a factor we need to concern, relay on just one factor to pick horse to bet
is reli dangerous.

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 25-6-2009 05:17 PM 編輯 ]

Thanks for your information.  For Race  1, there are 5 horses rated 5.  But only 1 horse
comes first eventually.  I am sorry to say that the system is not effective and needs
improvement.  I think the best way  to quantify the time difference of a target horse is to compare two races  of a horse's best  peformance in the same distance(same racing
season) based on the actual draws first  (covering the current race). As the old race's information is known  and then we can calculate the possible time difference when the draw differs this time from the compared race, in this way, we will have a better effect.
With the current  performance estimated after adjusting the time differnce on the account of the draw differnce, we then compare it with his opponents  in the current race after the calculations as discussed aforesaid.  Then we have an idea/rating and know if the target horse is worthwhile to bet or not.  Any comment?

一只貼欄賺步速的馬，未段時間自締慢於23.0的話，則此馬的真正實力沒有盡顯出來，有極大可能是賺形勢贏的馬，因上次的步速1.15.5屬超快步速，陽明寶寶在貼欄四個馬位後跟隨，則屬賺步速賺貼欄後上贏的馬。今次要加12磅之多，需然再排一檔。也非實力超的馬。結論就是同一時間完成賽事，但國中之星是蝕步速兼蝕疊位二疊望空，陽明寶寶是賺步速兼賺貼欄。所以今次國中之星反先陽明寶寶一點也不出奇。假如上場是慢步速未段偏快的話，則陽寶寶是蝕步速後上贏馬，國中之星是賺步速跟前力弱，則可相反而論。在1.15.5快步速全程二疊望空之下，一般任何馬都會回唔到氣，未段能不大敗負三馬位內已算是出色表演。假如是全程三疊望空的馬此步速負六七個馬位也算是超水準表演，下次出也一定要跟。

[ 本帖最後由 贏馬人 於 25-6-2009 08:52 PM 編輯 ]

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