I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
but the really important things I think u guys need to concern is.

each horse have different training method... some horse maybe dont need to "save" his energy before race and still can have a good match,
some horses maybe need to "save" his eneryg before he get a good result...

some horse maybe not need to "test gate" to make him have a good refresh in race.
but some horse need to have a "test gate" to let him concern on next race.

the following is the result if we bet the horse in this kind of "training pattern" in the last 4 yrs.

year        win        total        rate       avg_odd

2003        18        73         25%        6.805
2004        53        162        33%        7.890
2005        53        192        28%        7.03
2006        39        127        31%         5.88

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 31-8-2006 06:07 PM 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

Yes, you're totally right! Very smart!!!:em17:

So, that's why we need to keep track on the training record, on the one hand on the trainers', and on the other hand on the horses themselves. This enables us to check whether the trainer himself or the horse itself is going to "go horse".

That also explains the importance of training pattern and training seconds, which coffee and I are doing.

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
each horse have different training method... some horse maybe dont need to "save" his energy before race and still can have a good match,
some horses maybe need to "save" his eneryg before he get a good result...

some horse maybe not need to "test gate" to make him have a good refresh in race.
but some horse need to have a "test gate" to let him concern on next race.

the following is the result if we bet the horse in this kind of "training pattern" in the last 4 yrs.

year        win        total        rate       avg_odd

2003        18        73         25%        6.805
2004        53        162        33%        7.890
2005        53        192        28%        7.03
2006        39        127        31%         5.88
bu ...

。。。。
I don't get it.  What is the "training pattern" you rely on, so that you can pick up the horses to bet??
You mean picking by deciding the horse need "saving energy" or not??
Or, you mean picking by deciding the horse need "test gate" or not??
Or, both??
。。。。
:em34::em34::em34:

引用:

原帖由 freddie0212 於 28-8-2006 04:24 AM 發表

。。。。
I don't get it.  What is the "training pattern" you rely on, so that you can pick up the horses to bet??
You mean picking by deciding the horse need "saving ener ...

同意Freddie講法。操練不足和慳力分別只差一線。若用自己感覺去決定，系統便過於主觀。
建議用某數據為參考再客觀決定馬匹需要的是慳力還是勤操。例如你可用馬匹過往兩個月曾出賽次數，出賽之間相隔日數等等

[ 本帖最後由 coffee 於 28-8-2006 07:33 AM 編輯 ]

as wat I say "pattern" dat mean dats thing keep happen...

here is a example...


V096        9/3/2003        4/6/2003        8.7        1        '23223223.............
C050        26/12/2002        11/6/2003        5.5        3        '22322232............
A332        19/2/2003        14/6/2003        19        1        '22222222.............................
C071        15/3/2003        14/6/2003        6.4        3        '22322322..............................................
B423        11/1/2003        14/6/2003        6        4        '22222522...........................................
B187        10/5/2003        14/6/2003        18        2        '23223232..........................................
A161        4/6/2003        18/6/2003        7.1        4        '22232232.........................................
V205        20/11/2002        18/6/2003        22        3        '23223223........................................
B427        4/5/2003        22/6/2003        3.7        3        '22232223....................................

the first line is horse_id  
the first date is the date the horse have a training pattern like in line 6 and have a good result in dat race
the second date is the date dat the horse have a same training patter like last time have a good result in same training pattern.
then 4th line is odds. and 5th line is position
last line is the training... 3 is "fast jump"  2 is "just walk"  4 is "test gate"    5 is "racing"
the "." is I just hide some.. coz I cant really show u all my reports as Its a secret of my report... but anyway.. I just want to tell u guys
dat they really have a "real" training when the trainer really want to win the race.

PS: btw.. sure I am not using human feeling to chose horse.. Its all depends the horse have the traning or not .. just like coffee's style. but in different way.

and I just want to say out this point only..

"each horse have different training method"

C109        15/2/2004        25/4/2004        58        1
C109        1/6/2003        15/2/2004        9.9        3
C109        1/3/2003        10/5/2003        2.7        6

just show one more example.. this horse really have a regular training.... even dat race I dont think the trainer and owner think they can really win..
but as the trainer try his best to train the horse before the important race.. so dats the result..

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 28-8-2006 09:49 AM 發表
as wat I say "pattern" dat mean dats thing keep happen...

here is a example...


V096        9/3/2003        4/6/2003        8.7        1        '23223223.............
C050        26/12/2002        11/6/2003        5.5        3        '22322232..... ...

IF YOU HAVE DATA THAT IS WITHOUT HUMAN FEELING, PROBLEMS SOLVED, MAN!!:em17:
THE ONLY THING DETERMINES WINNING OR LOSING IS YOUR BETTING FORMAT.

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 27-8-2006 08:23 PM 發表
I just finish the searching training pattern for last 4 yrs...
from the result, Its seems dat most of the trainer they really have a training pattern before they really want to win the match.
bu ...

Expectation value (E)= 5.88x31% = 1.8223 very good la. much better than me.

If by Kelly's formula: Assume you have 10,000 capital. Use 0.2 as fraction

1st Bet = 10,000*0.2* (1.8223-1)/(5.88-1)
=HKD337

Nth bet = balance*0.2*(0.8223)/(4.88)

在數學上，你會贏最多錢！如果再檢驗一下賠率分布，得出不同賠率的 E，更佳！

reference for kelly's formula: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product ... glance&n=283155

引用:

原帖由 rucrazy 於 28-8-2006 09:49 AM 發表
the first line is horse_id  
the first date is the date the horse have a training pattern like in line 6 and have a good result in dat race
the second date is the date dat the horse have a same training patter like last time have a good result in same training pattern.
then 4th line is odds. and 5th line is position
last line is the training... 3 is "fast jump"  2 is "just walk"  4 is "test gate"    5 is "racing"
the "." is I just hide some.. coz I cant really show u all my reports as Its a secret of my report... but anyway.. I just want to tell u guys
dat they really have a "real" training when the trainer really want to win the race.

Thanks for your explanation.  But, I still have somethings not sure.  What's your meaning of "have a good result" ??  It means getting in place?? or finish in short lenght??

I agree with you that every horse have specific training pattern.  But, to train an animal, which is always changing in forms, in conditions, in health, and in age, is it resonable to use the same pattern to train for winning specific race??  Is there any flexiblity to pick (e.g. 90% similar to the "good result" training pattern) ??

Pls don't mind my query, that's only discussion for horseracing.:smile_15: