必殺技和必殺秒數入圍率保持34%, 即三隻有一隻中，但仍難贏錢。
一定是買法有問題。我相信就算熱門都有利可圖。怎樣才可穩嬴呢？
請大家俾吓意見。

let's make the case a bit simple first, if you only bet on win
if 1/3 chance to win, it means every horse with odd 3 you will break even.

but i think what you mean by 1/3 chance is the horse getting in the place
it means when the horse pay you $30 will let you breakeven

so, i will suggest you consider the odds for win AND place together:
say a horse's win odd is 3 and place odd is 1.6
you bet $100 for each pool
the best case, it wins, you get:
$300 for win and $160 for place, net profit = $260
so the total odd for your horse is 2.6 only
even if it win you still lose in long run, if it run in place you lose more, of course it is worst if it cannot even get into place

so, i suggest, if you keep your bet pattern W and P, you must consider the odd for both W and P, you ONLY bet if the odd is greater than 3

引用:

Originally posted by omike at 22-10-2005 22:13:
let's make the case a bit simple first, if you only bet on win
if 1/3 chance to win, it means every horse with odd 3 you will break even.

but i think what you mean by 1/3 chance is the horse ge ...

according to ur information and calculation, the odd is 2.3, not 2.6
ur principle is $200 (w & P @ 100 ), the return is $460, so the odd of this horse is 460/200, so it should be 2.3

Sorry ! I just want to point out.

買法有問題?... I want to know how you distribue your bet fund?

問題係太太太過集中 東厩 & 蔡厩 既馬了
你想好分都難!

而且選馬只用操練黎作定論,不加入其他因素,如報名,手影,成長度等等
咁好難的

你一次過咁多馬平注賭,如果東蔡生性你就有錢贏姐,冇你就輸左直

仲有, 相信馬房自己出得必殺技和必殺秒數的話多數好有信心博........咁應該有唔少內幕同消息飛.....

如之前阿蔡自己都試過買曬自己d 馬中過一次six-up......咁睇平時佢都有買下自己d 馬

引用:

Originally posted by myth at 22-10-2005 10:36 PM:



according to ur information and calculation, the odd is 2.3, not 2.6
ur principle is $200 (w & P @ 100 ), the return is $460, so the odd of this horse is 460/200, so it should be 2.3

...

i may not be good to express myself, also there is calculation error, my apology
what i mean is, if coffee keep on betting odds (W+P) over 4 WITH his hit rate over 34%, he will have profit

example:
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400
odd 4.2 (w+p), 200 each, lost = -400 (total -800)
odd 4.1 (w+p), 200 each, win = +820 (total profit = 20)

以我所知，職業睹徒是不買P的，只主力買W。一個是"馬神"的前拍檔團，一個是大戶。我與他們絕不熟絡，不過他們沒有需要講大話。

從搏彩上，買P怎樣蝕底之前已談論過。不能忽視值搏率啊！

引用:

Originally posted by phantomhorse at 2005-10-23 02:08 AM:
以我所知，職業睹徒是不買P的，只主力買W。一個是"馬神"的前拍檔團，一個是大戶。我與他們絕不熟絡，不過他們沒有需要講大話。

從搏彩上，買P怎樣蝕底之前已談論過。不能忽視值搏率啊！

Thank you very much, phantom!! But how they determine their 注碼?

"馬神Partner: 怎樣分配注碼不太清楚。他們自有一套計算方法，厘定值搏率。值搏便買W。如果兩匹馬都值搏怎辦？我真的不知。

大戶是騎師的老細，騎師搏馬就會通知老細。跑P無錢收的。咁你明白點解W對騎練咁重要啦！

總之，他們就有一個明顯的共通點：不買P。

其實，投注方法必須依據你的命中率及回報率來厘定。34%的P命中率+回報率~2倍(除本)是不俗，但非絕對優勢。不過咁，從你的紀錄可見你的冷P成績不俗，可以諗下加以利用。點利用你自度啦。我諗到，講比你聽都冇用。馬迷就是最講ego的一群。唔算自己o既o野，中到都冇終極快樂。

何況，我諗唔到:cool: