引用:
原帖由 Justinian 於 30-10-2006 11:45 PM 發表
小胖兄，我一向都有睇你的帖，只是冇留言。
支持你！:smile_15:
順提一個問題，其實想問好耐，你的Win投注到現在，
可有掌握到一點心得嗎？
能否確定在什麼條件下，(例如：班次、磅位、路程 ... 等)
...
Hi brother,
Yes, a little. My rule of picking horses is purely based on "physics". That is, for even horses, some of them have better situation and positions. Also, I eliminate some horses that has few chances and not worth betting (e.g. has trouble on eating food)
I found that even for last season, it works best for non-big racing dates and on latter half of eason and "small racing days". Maybe during first half of season or big racing days, there're a lot of tatics and plans for winning big races by the trainers. As a result, the contribution or % of physics is less. It works for Sep this season also as maybe, there's no tactic yet and also maybe even the trainers not know much about their horses yet.
So, I'm not too worrying about the fall in result in Oct06. At least on most of the days, there's some return and not losing all of them. Even most of the return are rather hot.
For muddy, I think it works worse than grass. One of the reason is that foreign riders ride much much better than hk guys, especially those young guys. I didn't take this factor into consideration yet. Another reason is that, of course, as expected, many horses are grass horse and you know nothing about their muddy skills. This cause the race to be even more "uneven" (even we don't know that how it's uneven)
Hope it helps. Maybe there's more to discuss if you want.
班次、磅位 : I think these 2 offsets each. It makes the races more "even" and helps my method a lot (more even => more depend on physics). As a result, I ignore both.
路程 : for this factor, I think I need some improvement. However, I can't find any source that can provide me with concrete rules of elimination. Most of the newspaper are talking about the horse status.
And also, sometimes horse can run longer. Sometimes run shorter. It's rather difficult to manage it. And finially, most trainers wont put their horse into unsuitable tracks. Maybe they want to try.
Anyway, I think the lack of accurate source is the major factor.
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本帖最後由 小胖 於 31-10-2006 11:25 AM 編輯 ]
