引用:

原帖由 山埃博士 於 29-1-2007 11:40 AM 發表

特點：質新馬，唔好信，速勢最大盲點！:smile_38::smile_38::smile_38:

五班马可以考虑~:em37:

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原帖由 whatchee 於 30-1-2007 11:32 AM 發表
I would like to post my dead horse in the morning of racing day, using new found formula,

last racing, one of them turns out to be the first horse, and others all dead.

see how it goes in Hap ...

Bro whatchee,

As past statistics (no. of picks vs no. of misses for this season)?  It'll be better to evalulate any rule for more samples.

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 30-1-2007 12:18 PM 編輯 ]

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原帖由 山埃博士 於 29-1-2007 11:44 AM 發表
今季垃圾盲點馬......哲學家！:smile_48:

Just one missed, doctor?  If yes, then you're superman!!

支持下先...............

Sep06 :
5        C015        好利高        7        伍碧權        06_07        9_27        R045        5 <--- another exceptional race

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原帖由 小胖 於 29-1-2007 09:43 AM 發表
The reason I post this is that after some years of studying, I found it's rather difficult to find some reliable resources that can filter out bad horses.  Followings are some of the very few that  ...

3. overnight odd

I think 速勢 is a key to find out which horse might over bet in the race. and which horse have a greater chance even
with a good odds..

especailly when u find out a horse's 速勢 is on the top.. and its a 1st favourite odds.

as I dont think 速勢 is the main key in the horse racing nowsaday if u wanna make profit...

coz the 速勢 point is a public information from hkjc... everyone can get the 速勢 point very easy
via hkjc... so the value of 速勢 is not as useful as when the time 速勢 is just come out.

I do agree dat when some races.. if u think the 1st favourite is overbet, especialy u think dat
horse actually wont have a good chance to win.... and find out some horse's
ranking in the 速勢 is seems better than dat horses. Then it might be a good chance to bet
dat kind of horses...

anyway... I give up studying 速勢 in this season.

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原帖由 rucrazy 於 2-2-2007 09:54 AM 發表
I think 速勢 is a key to find out which horse might over bet in the race. and which horse have a greater chance even
with a good odds..

especailly when u find out a horse's 速勢 is on the top ...

Thanks so much for dropping message here.

I also have the same feeling that 速勢 is a calculation that is too public and shared by many persons.  As a result, it's very difficult to pick out the winning horse directly from 速勢 value.

However, I think it's the source of calculation which includes a lot of factors, and is very convenient to anyone that has no time to study deeply or doesn't have solid mathematical background to obtain some quantative values on the horse speed (they don't need to calculate the relative speed on past races, latent speed, racing condition etc).  It's still a very useful value for reference, on quantative aspect.

This season, I use 速勢 not to pick the winning horse, but to eliminate the losing horses.  If some horse has very bad value of 速勢, then I think the horse can be eliminated.

On the other hand, you also point out a very useful point that 速勢 is a good media to CONFIRM your estimation - such as finding a horse is good/bad or worthy.  If you're very confident on a horse but it has very bad 速勢, then you have to be cautious.  On the other hand, if a horse has good 速勢 but has cold odd, then it may be worthwhile to study on it.

I may include this study on my workshop, for race result high 速勢 with high odds.  Or we can bet heavily on high 速勢 with low odds.

[ 本帖最後由 小胖 於 2-2-2007 10:19 AM 編輯 ]

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原帖由 小胖 於 2-2-2007 01:09 AM 發表


3. overnight odd

4. horse status (from hkjc) + distance