591        快活谷        草地        3        1650        1        7        1        世界波
629        快活谷        草地        3        1650        2        4        2        世界波
681        快活谷        草地        3        1800        1        1        3        世界波

For comparsion and yardstick  purposes, I list the best finishing time and the best last 400M speed of the last season:
                           Best Finishing Time              Last 400M Speed*
Class 1            1.40.2                                        22.81
Class  2            1.39.6                                       23.41
Class 3             1.40                                         23.52
Class 4              1.39.9                                      23.38
Class 5              1.40.8                                      23.19

* The last 400M speed acheived in that race  which the  horse gave his best finishing time.

                        Best 400M Speed                  Finishing Time**
Class 1             21.8                                       1.42.0
Class 2             22.58                                      1.41.1
Class 3             22.56                                      1.42.4
Class 4             22.25                                      1.42.3
Class 5              22.67                                     1.44.1

** Finishing time acheived in that race which she gave the best 400M speed.

With my chart, you will readily know if the horse considered is a target horse or not. For
example, if you find a horse  in a race A, which speed in that class, say class 3  is faster than 1.40.0, you know she breaks the record of the last season's fastest finishing time. In a next race B, if  she competes in 1650M again, of course she stands a good chance to
get a place or win.  If an additional supporting evidence shows  her last 400M speed in that
race A closer  to the last season's best  last 400M  speed in that class i.e. 22.56 at the same time, you are confident that she wins almost for sure in the next race B. I put money in your brothers'  pockets!!

Have you prove your findings by using 2007 -2008 season data on 2008 - 2009 season result, or even earlier ?

We compare season by season. No need to take into account the season's data before the last season's data. Mine is based on 08-09 horse season. You will be misled by the seasons' data if  you considert it at the same time. New horses come in and old horses
go out every year.

I see your point, just let's take a look on 1650 from 2007 -2008 season data, class 3 best finish time was 1.39.2 while class 4 best finish time was 1.39.6. i.e. no horse in last season can acheive these finish time.

look at this, may be can inspire you something, my calculation is not always good in predict, but i feel that it is not bad already, there is something can improve

http://www.ma288.com/gogohorse/w ... p;raceDate=20090610

Yes, you are right. There is no horse in the last seasons that can break the best finishing time of 1650M Happy Valley in Class 3 and 4 in 07/08 season.  It is not strange. Reason:
the old record time in both cases might be due the exceptional fast track or the track of
the last season cannot provide an advantageous conditions for the horses to acheive
the best finishing time better than those in 07/08 season.  Hence, you can see even in
Class 1 in the last season, the best finishing time is slower than same in Class 2 and Class 3. You know why?  There are two reasons. A horse acheived  the best finishing time in Class 1 has the comparatively the fastest last 400M i.e. 22.81 in all classes ranked.
Secondly,  there is no strong opponent in Class 1 to stimulate the best finishing time
horse to run faster.  Question:  How can we know the horse is our target horse when
evaluating  in Class 1 race?  It is simple.  All you have to do to find a horse who
runs faster than 1.39.6 (the fastest finishing time in all classes) with the corresponding last 400 speed close to 21.8 (the fastest last 400M in all classes)  Get it?

cycchow, forget that website. To me, they are meaningless.

萬事喜,福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their  last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M speed equal or faster than 23.0
2. their  first 3 sections time is equal to and faster than 76.6 (a fast pac run), still they all
can have strength to finish the last 400M by just losing the race  within 2 horse
lengths (Condition 2 is another angle to dig out the bank horse apart from condition 1)

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 10-7-2009 08:41 PM 發表
萬事喜,福喜,國中之星 are my bank horses in 1650M Happy Valley next season. They
fulfil two stringent conditions:
1. their  last two sections time is equal to or faster than 48.0 with the last 400M s ...

萬事喜已退役.